We conducted a cross-asset scenario analysis on potential outcomes from the upcoming midterm elections in the United States. Using both a macro and a bottom-up approach, our base case was for a Democratic House of Representatives and a Republican Senate, but we also considered the possibility of a sweep in... Show More
I recently visited Perth to speak with some iron ore miners, before heading north to visit Fortescue Metals Group’s Solomon mining hub and Port Hedland infrastructure. Show More
In The Australian Financial Review I argue that it is misguided to conceive of He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named as irrational, a radical reformer, or a right-wing zealot—history suggests he is none of these things. While one can quibble with his ethics, morality, consistency and personal style, he is unambiguously the pure American profit... Show More
Sector rotation in the US equity market over the past month has been driven by a combination of rising bond yields, stronger US economic growth and political risks going into Tuesday’s US Presidential and Congressional elections. The chart shows the performance over the past month of the 10 sectors that comprise... Show More
The last minute re-opening of investigations by the FBI into the affairs of Hillary Clinton as regards her private email servers was unquestionably the key event that has swung the polls and driven gold’s turnaround in recent days. Yet both candidates support policies that would drive higher gold prices through... Show More
The Australian Federal election has delivered a messy result suggesting a more difficult Senate for the Coalition if it can form government and the risk of a return to minority government. The risk is that we will see a further slippage in the budget outlook – with a downgrade in... Show More
Aussie market pulled back with usual Friday profit taking as investors were not willing to carry risk into the weekend. The bounce with Oil took a breather as Saudi Arabia confirmed they were talking about freezing and not cutting supply. Non OPEC and OPEC countries will have to come up... Show More
Aussie market started positive with better commodity and global market sentiment before budget update draining the market of optimism. We have now had 13 out of the last 16 days being negative. Commodities took a breather for a change and the domestic budget delivered the negative news. The budget has... Show More
Equity markets will be down for the year. The round of big bank results (ANZ, NAB, WBC) starting this Thursday will meet expectations but David Murray has a compelling argument bank regulatory capital ratios need to rise. Banks should be able to retain the extra capital by lowering dividend payout... Show More
CBA has released an interesting note today examining the history of elections and their rather short-term effects on consumer confidence, the dollar and the stock market. Confidence levels generally lifted modestly following Federal election outcomes before other issues took greater prominence. Generally the short-term election boost to confidence lasted only... Show More
Japan's Prime Minister wins decisive reelection on stimulus platform. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Japan easily won his reelection vote on Sunday and took a majority rule in Japan's upper house of Parliament. This gives him three years of control without another vote and time to continue his promised stimulus... Show More