election

The Indian General Election is coming up on May 23, 2019. Our base case is that Modi is returned as Prime Minister and the BJP gains a majority of seats, or at least retains power in a coalition with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). This has been our base case... Show More

First, a big thanks for the incredible interest in, and downloads of, our Complexity Premia podcast! We have just published the third episode where we: discuss analysis showing that the government’s fiscal budget is already in surplus and what this means for the looming election; reflect on the heated and... Show More

The negative effects of ALP policies on housing, SMSFs and profit margins are already impacting certain sectors of the market, such as banks, residential property developers, homebuilders and retailers. Show More

In my column today I analyse the new NAB hybrid, which was cheap and attracted a monster circa $200m bid from the $70bn goliath Unisuper with CIO John Pearce choosing to fade the ALP election risks and associated franking debate, and possibly to capitalise on a change in the way... Show More

Today I question whether ScoMo and APRA "boned" NAB's Henry and Thorburn - it was somewhat coincidental timing given ScoMo had called for their heads 24hrs earlier - and reveal that Labor will be giving the banks an incredible $2.6 billion annual profitability gift by forcing consumers, rather than banks,... Show More

In my column today I reveal that Australia is now officially experiencing the biggest house price falls on record in almost 40 years: home values across the five largest capital cities have officially fallen 8.3 per cent from their late 2017 peak according to the top index provider, CoreLogic, which... Show More

In my first column for the year, I reflect on the debate I kicked off regarding the absence of any publicly managed super solution and the role the Future Fund could play in this context. After dealing with criticisms from vested interests, I query whether Chris Bowen has unwittingly wedged... Show More

We conducted a cross-asset scenario analysis on potential outcomes from the upcoming midterm elections in the United States. Using both a macro and a bottom-up approach, our base case was for a Democratic House of Representatives and a Republican Senate, but we also considered the possibility of a sweep in... Show More

I recently visited Perth to speak with some iron ore miners, before heading north to visit Fortescue Metals Group’s Solomon mining hub and Port Hedland infrastructure. Show More

In The Australian Financial Review I argue that it is misguided to conceive of He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named as irrational, a radical reformer, or a right-wing zealot—history suggests he is none of these things. While one can quibble with his ethics, morality, consistency and personal style, he is unambiguously the pure American profit... Show More