Global markets are beginning to move past the recent macro concerns as clarity improves. The US election cycle and US Fed interest rate cycle both remain in line with market expectations. ECB tapering optimism has Brexit and the Italian referendum as road blocks. Central banks are on a supporting bias... Show More
Global markets are looking at US Presidential election and Italian referendum as the next key risk catalysts. Central banks are running out of ammunition and are being forced into even more complex and creative ways to drive asset bubbles. Central banks are becoming the new global reality stars for the... Show More
Macro outlook: The low volatility and crowded nature of investor holdings suggest Show More
Global markets have pulled back on central bank uncertainty. The yield squeeze in the bond markets pushed yield up from the lows and put pressure on stretched equity market valuations. We continue to expect all central banks except the US Fed to remain in an easing bias, while the US... Show More
Central banks on easing bias, US Fed moving away from interest rate raising cycle and China stimulus will support commodities in the next 6-12 months. Despite the outperformance in the gold sector over the last 9mths, we continue to see more upside and maintain our buy call on the gold... Show More
Similar to 2015, the profit taking risk in the August/September period is rising as we move past reporting season on stretched multiples. The US Fed outlook statements are driving rate hike expectations that are unlikely to be met. The US rate cycle has moved from an uncertain rinse cycle to... Show More
Low growth and low interest rates remain the key risks for financial stocks as global economies move from one disaster to another. The growth and yield to value outlook continues to favour banks above diversified financials, insurance and property trusts. The currency is likely to weaken as market optimism of... Show More
Slowing global growth, excessive central bank support and currency wars have driven industrial stocks to historical high multiples despite lagging earnings growth and low yields. We continue to expect the central banks to remain on an easing bias while the US Fed move on rates will be slower than expected.... Show More
The resource sector is likely to remain resilient and range bound till China removes stimulus or US Fed ramps up rate cycle. After the outperformance from the gold sector in the past 6-12 months, we expect energy sector to take the mantle as the top performer over the next 6-12mths.... Show More
The central banks are becoming the phantom menace for the global growth recovery. The Mexican standoff between central banks on easing bias, results in lower rates and no real relative change in currency. The US Fed leads the world down the stimulus path and is unable to lead the interest... Show More
Macro outlook: Low growth and low interest rates remain the key risks for financial stocks as global economies move from one disaster to another. The turnaround big banks offer better value in low growth outlook as they have relatively lower housing exposure and trade at a discount. Preferred picks are... Show More
Central banks and global growth worries remain the key risks for industrial stocks. China, Japan, Europe and UK are expected to deliver more stimulus while US remains outside their rate hike cycle despite strong domestic economic outlook. RBA is waiting to confirm weak inflation data before cutting rates in August.... Show More
Macro outlook: China stimulus and US Fed backflip to support commodities in the next 6-12 months as declining global growth drives more central banks to keep easing bias and deliver more stimulus. Growing debt and deficit problems have forced governments to deliver a low risk and low growth agenda to... Show More
Global markets are running on central bank stimulus hope while earnings remain weak. The inability of central banks to pull their economies away from stimulus dependencies has created an inefficient distribution of resources. Lack of fiscal reform and unwillingness of governments to make the hard decision is forcing central banks... Show More
Macro outlook: Low growth and low interest rates remain the key risks for financial stocks as central banks run out of ideas. China, Japan and Europe will need more central bank support to manage growth slowdown while there are cracks beginning to appear in the US and UK recovery stories.... Show More
Macro outlook: Central banks and global growth worries remain the key risks for industrial stocks. The herd mentality in the market has driven investors into the same market darling sector and stock exposures while macro risks in US and Europe will drive profit taking in crowded trades. The defensive yield... Show More
Macro outlook: Despite short term stimulus reprieves, the medium to long term global market dynamics point to slowing global growth, weaker commodity prices and lower interest rates. The US Fed backflip has delivered another short term relief for commodity prices while longer term inflation pressures will force the USD higher.... Show More
Local market outlook: The Australian equity market is expected to pullback as global and local sentiment fall in the traditional weak local winter season. Australia continues to ignore structural issues after going through 25 years of growth on the back of credit, population and mining boom. The lack of policy... Show More
Global growth remains weak while US recovery is beginning to give the US Fed comfort in moving on their tightening rate cycle. China, Europe and Japan are expected to deliver more stimulus while US beginning to see early signs of inflation. Even with the recovering US yields, Aussie financials are... Show More
Despite short term stimulus reprieves, the medium to long term dynamics point to slowing global growth, weaker commodity prices and lower interest rates. The conflicting monetary and fiscal policy settings will continue to weigh on any global growth recovery. The risk of the US Fed move, the negative outlook for... Show More
