Chris Watling, CEO and Chief Market Strategist at Longview Economics, recently sounded the recession alarm on the Australian economy. We had the chance to sit down with him to explore his view, hear where he’s seen a very similar set up before, and to learn just how bearish he really... Show More
After the strong rally which saw gold put on USD $100oz in Q4 2018, the precious metal market has undergone a much needed consolidation over the last fortnight, with gold trading in a range between USD $1280oz and USD $1300oz. Show More
In my last Livewire post, I commented that The Vega Fund would be looking closely at economic data over the coming months to determine whether it should remain long (and weather out what I believe is a temporary correction) or whether going short would be a viable option. Show More
There is an odd stat that will haunt a few… the S&P 500 was down -3.2% last night. Now there have only been 3 other years where the market has a -3% in December. 1987, 2000 and 2008…. I’ll leave that there, but gee I hate those three years. It’s... Show More
Despite political tension and underperformance of the European Financials sector in the June quarter, results in 2017 and the first quarter were solid. We saw upgrades for the European banking sector through 2017 on the back of improving loan losses and continued uptick in lending growth. The banks are also... Show More
With the bull market entering its tenth year and interest rates increasing, what’s worked so well since the GFC, including buying high growth stocks, defensive businesses and high yielding stocks, is unlikely to work well through the cycle’s next phase. Show More
This week we have our first overseas guest on The Rules of Investing, Jim Mellon. Jim is a billionaire investor, speaker, and co-author of 'Juvenescence: Investing in the Age of Longevity.' Show More
The US economic expansion has just become the second longest on record. If it continues beyond mid-2019, it will be number one. Its longevity is probably due to a mixture of circumstances, judgement and luck. The severity of the recession following the global financial crisis (GFC), coupled with the slowness... Show More
The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25% as expected to the upper band target of 1.75%, 0.25% higher than that of the RBA cash rate. The Fed rationalised the increase noting the strengthening of the economic outlook in recent months. Show More
The severity of the global financial crisis, and the weakness of the subsequent recovery, triggered much soul-searching among the economics profession. The global economy may finally be escaping from the long shadow of the crisis, but macroeconomics has continued to undergo a major reassessment in light of its apparent failure... Show More
‘Those who do not learn from history are condemned to repeat it’. So said Spanish-American philosopher George Santayana. Show More
The US market has become more complex. Earnings have been strong during 2017 but multiples are highly elevated, meaning there are increasingly fewer opportunities. One of the biggest risks for markets would have to be US equities. It’s more than 50% of the MSCI World Index, and where many people... Show More
No one wants to catch a falling knife, but once it jabs the floor there’s money to be made. For an early heads-up on when to strike, one way is to track the rate of change, or delta. Jonathan Koh from Greencape Capital recounts how they used this to predict... Show More
We know Europe has been through a touch economic cycle over the last few years since the GFC. That's somewhat on the mend now. Once the European earnings come through, the markets will start to appreciate that and reward those stocks - both with a re-rating as well as seeing... Show More
It has been about 10 years since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) began to unfold. Very few were prepared for the financial damage that ensued. And it has permanently impacted the psyche of many market pundits. Since then, there has been no shortage of bear market predictions and lately there... Show More
When I left my last firm just before the GFC I had a non-compete associated with the sale of the equity as I was a major shareholder. For the first time in my career I took some time off. I travelled overseas and spent some time in Madrid, Spain. I... Show More
In the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the traditional method of lowering interest rates failed to promote meaningful growth or inflation. This prompted several major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed), to undertake ‘extraordinary’ monetary policy measures to stimulate their economies. The effect of such an... Show More
I saw a US election analyst commenting that "the mainstream media got the mainstream wrong." Seems to be the way in the modern age - perhaps too much attention is paid to social media discussion to try and gauge voter mood. Many who feel marginalised are too busy working 3... Show More
The Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) recently released a research report titled “The Seven Ages of Gold”, which looked at central bank activity in the gold market, over the last two centuries. It noted that net purchasing/selling patterns fell into seven distinct periods, each lasting an average of... Show More
Bear Stearns, the US investment bank that was the first domino to fall in the GFC, was promised a bailout by the New York Fed on March 14, 2008. Within the next week, the Fed pulled the offer, and the firm collapsed. In hindsight, it should be obvious that this... Show More
