The IMF has just run a massive stress-test on all the Aussie banks, involving a 10% fall in GDP, a 30% drop in house prices, a blow-out in credit spreads and a recession similar to what the US experienced during the GFC. In my column today I discuss their findings,... Show More
Over the past 15 years Australian house prices have been on an incredible run, resulting in Australian households becoming some of the most indebted in the world. So what is the economic cost of Australia’s sky high property prices and what could it mean for property prices in 2018? Show More
A recent working paper from the IMF titled “Credit Booms – Is China Different?” provides a good summary of many of the key issues facing China’s economy. Rapid credit growth since the global financial crisis is record setting for both its total expansion and its duration. Credit is being poorly... Show More
The International Monetary Fund has built a reputation as an unbiased forecaster. The IMF has a pretty optimistic outlook for the Australian budget for the next couple of years. They believe that the Australian budget deficit will decline from 2.7% of GDP in calendar 2016 to 2.2% of GDP in... Show More
Market took some punishment today ahead of the US Fed update. The macro risk of US Fed and BOE update before US elections have been weighing on the market. Small caps are down over 10% from the highs while large caps are down over 5%. The recent extra pain in... Show More
Market closed mainly flat on a very volatile and choppy day. Aussie market turned out a negative weekly return to break a three straight positive weekly run. Higher oil prices and better inflation outlook from China should help market sentiment, but the markets are concerned about US tonight. We have... Show More
Market closed slightly positive on a volatile choppy day. We have a few Fed speeches to come tomorrow while the last one calmed the market on rate rise speed. FOMC minutes to come out tomorrow night while US reporting season also kicks off tonight with Alcoa. US market likely to... Show More
Market opened positive and then sold down gradually to finish slightly positive. Our market was waiting to see the global reaction before moving positive. The US Fed move is now firmly in Dec. The US election worries are also subsiding as Republican candidate’s debate performance was not seen by either... Show More
Market fell on the open with uncertain central bank outlook before trading sideways and choppy for the rest of the day. US job data tonight will be key catalyst short term. We remain of the view that we should see some economic weakness into the election while US Fed will... Show More
Market kept the positive global momentum going all day. US jobless tonight and non-farm payroll tomorrow will be key catalysts to market’s perception of US Fed rate outlook. We remain of the view that we should see some weakness into the election while US Fed will continue to move towards... Show More
Market fell on the open with global markets and then made a slight recovery before trading sideways for most of the second half of the day. We see the worries are overblown and the market will work through these short term panic selloffs. Despite the panic today, the local market... Show More
Market started negative before staging a big recovery to positive territory was deflated by the RBA non-action in the afternoon. RBA was never going to cut rates today and the market is back looking at quality value yields. The local market is now eyeing 3rd straight positive week and we... Show More
Slumping world trade growth is the latest reason for lowering global growth forecasts. As it releases its twice yearly World Economic Outlook on Tuesday the International Monetary Fund will be joining a succession of international economic organisations warning of the consequences of a decline in global trade growth. The World... Show More
Market fell on the open with Euro bank worries before making a decent recovery to halve the losses for the day. The market delivered second positive week to finish the month/quarter after five consecutive weeks of negative returns. DB was leading the Euro trash worries and this was not the... Show More
Market popped high on the open with OPEC deal optimism and then kept climbing to deliver a solid positive day. There might be a bit of end of month/quarter window dressing going through as well….with some of the market running off to the long weekend. Interesting moves of the day….... Show More
Aussie market popped high on the open before falling back to flat territory and trading sideways with lack of any real sentiment in any direction. The central bank worries are on the sidelines. US presidential debate worries have passed for now. RBA and US Fed speeches coming thick and fast,... Show More
Aussie market fell on the open in line with US markets before recovering on the Democratic debate win to halve the loss for the day. As with any political polarising debates, this will be analysed with a substantial spin cycle while the equity markets, currency markets and the betting agencies... Show More
Aussie market outperformed expectations to deliver a flat day when the rest of the world was stuck in negative sentiment. Aussie market has now delivered five straight positive days…eight positive days out of the last nine. The central banks have now removed themselves from the risk category while the US... Show More
Aussie market ripped out another top performance as the positive sentiment builds steam. Aussie market has now delivered the first positive week after five negative weeks. The central banks have confirmed that they are going to remain in current state and play currency war. The market will return to yield... Show More
Aussie market had a solid day up after a bit of volatility in the first hour as central bank worries wane after BOJ update. Aussie market is holding to the optimism like bulldog and the wait will be over tomorrow morning….the central bank deluge is nearly coming to an end…US... Show More
