As a fan of dystopian classics such as Huxley’s ‘Brave New World’ and Orwell’s ‘1984’, Martin Conlon, Schroders’ Head of Australian equites, finds their insights into the perils of searching for a manipulated utopia alarmingly relevant to today’s financial world. As a rationalist, he suggests the benefits of manipulating asset... Show More
‘Oh, Inverted World’ is the title of the 2001 album of the US indie band The Shins. It's a good description of todays’ topsy turvey world created by loose monetary policy. One big distortion in the anomaly we see in stock pricing tied to business duration. Much-used discounted-cash flow analysis... Show More
The surprise 'Brexit' vote result towards quarter end served as a stark reminder of increasingly tenuous linkage between the financial economy and the real economy. Politicians and those connected to the financial economy were almost universally in favour of remaining part of the EU. Warnings of the consequences of exiting... Show More
We believe expectations of ongoing deflationary conditions (which are spurious in any case, as they depend on the particular prices on which one chooses to focus) are, like the prevailing investment methodologies, anchored in extrapolation rather than logic. Added to bond portfolios which have rarely been larger or more ludicrously... Show More
Last month I interviewed Head of Australian Equities, Martin Conlon, on the current positioning of the Schroder Australian Equity Fund and our views as we look forward. More recently we have seen a turnaround in the market leaders, with the Fund benefiting from Resources and Energy outperforming the interest rate... Show More
Much as we might prefer otherwise, the market price of every listed equity investment is an amorphous blend of human behaviour, macroeconomic and corporate fundamentals. Share prices do not conform to a precise mathematical theorem. Investment returns over any period will comprise an element which reflects investors’ assessment of the... Show More
“Superforecasters”, those that consistently beat the crowd, tend to be methodical, analytical and collect information from a variety of sources. They are unlikely to be relying on emotive predictions from CNBC presenters. In examining things from every angle, they invariably start by trying to establish rough probability of an outcome,... Show More
The ‘outside view’ in stock market terms is complex. Interest rates, economic growth, human behaviour, liquidity, valuation levels and a myriad of other variables, play a part. In looking at most of these drivers from a longer term perspective, one thing is obvious. Almost all are at extremes when considered... Show More