Recession risk

Macro
Chris Watling

The consensus outlook for the US economy has become increasingly fearful in recent months. In particular, the bears point to renewed trade war concerns, which have been damaging confidence. At the same time, signs of heightened recession risk are emerging. These include:Inversions in parts of the US yield curve,A warning... Show More

Patrick Poke

GDP surprised to the downside in the September quarter; despite consensus expectations of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) growth, the actual result was -0.5%. According to FactSet, economists are more bullish this quarter, with consensus estimates sitting at 0.8%. But a recent slew of poor data could be calling this into question. Show More

The risk of a US recession next year is rising fast. Early warning indicators from US 'flow of funds' data point to an incipient squeeze, the long-feared capitulation after five successive quarters of declining corporate profits. Yet the Fed has set the course for a rise in interest rates in... Show More

Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist at Saxo Bank, says tightening monetary policy has created a 60% chance of a US recession in 2016. Contrary to popular understanding, he says monetary policy has been tightening since 2014. A counter-intuitive example of this comes from negative interest rates. “I live in one of... Show More

Risky assets including equities have surged following the U.K. electorate's historic vote to leave the European Union, but government bonds have also rallied; two things that ought to suggest different outlooks for economic growth. Analysts are pointing to the flattening U.S. yield curve as evidence of slowing expectations of economic growth. A model maintained by Deutsche Bank AG's Steven... Show More