We have just published our August RMBS default index report, which you can download here. Key take-aways are as follows: Show More
In the AFR I discuss the bifurcation between equity and debt, the major banks' funding needs, NAB's unique approach to integrating trading and sales up and down the capital structure, and prospective rating changes for bank subordinated bonds and hybrids (click here to read for free or AFR subs can... Show More
In The AFR I again take no prisoners (as one bank CEO told me!) with my beloved central bank, arguing that S&P has slapped it in the face on housing with its downgrade of the credit outlook of the Australian financial system to "negative" on the back of its worries... Show More
Standard & Poor's has cut its credit rating outlook for second-tier Australian banks, highlighting the growing risks to lenders from rising property prices and household debt. The credit rating agency on Monday lowered its credit rating outlook for 25 financial institutions in the country, including Bank of Queensland, Bendigo and... Show More
Nikko AM Australia’s fixed income team has analysed whether it is possible for the banks to maintain their AA- ratings without the uplift from a AAA sovereign rating. We explore how the Australian banks receive their AA- ratings, whether they could maintain those ratings despite a sovereign downgrade and the... Show More
The Australian Banking Index is finally enjoying some time in the sun rallying over 10% during the last month. Their results have not been as bad as feared by many and of course they received a big shot in the arm from the RBA when they lowered interest rates to... Show More
This weekend's report is relatively short because stock markets have unfolded exactly as we have been forecasting; hopefully, that's not the kiss of death to our views! Show More
This report covers a theme we have discussed over recent weeks BUT because we believe it's so important to be clear on our view for 2016 we feel compelled to clarify it in simple terms. Show More
Over the last 6 years the average range for December is 284 points with extremes at 189 and 344 respectively. The average trading range for these recent Decembers has relatively large extremes but it is very comparable to the typical November retracements of 7% (7.5% for this November). So, if... Show More
The S&P needs more earnings to compensate for less favourable interest rate effects. The estimate for June quarter S&P500 earnings (shown in the red marker in the chart) is 9.6% higher than operating earnings in the March quarter and 3.6% lower than earnings in the 2014 June quarter. The responsiveness... Show More
