In the first podcast for 2018, Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital sits down with Livewire Editor, Patrick Poke. The topic at hand is Australia: the share market, the economy, wages, and of course, house prices. They discuss UBS's report late last year... Show More
A common narrative on the Australian housing market is that it’s in a giant speculative bubble propelled by tax breaks, low interest rates and “liar loans” that have led to massive mortgage stress and that it’s all about to go bust, bringing down the banks and the economy with it.... Show More
To cut through the deafening noise around this week’s Federal budget, Livewire has asked four of Australia’s leading Economists to boil the budget down to its single most important theme, and to explain what it means for investors. We also asked which specific sectors of the market are going to... Show More
It’s now a decade since the first problems with US sub-prime mortgages started to appear and nearly eight years since share markets hit their global financial crisis lows. From those lows in 2009 lows US shares are up 239%, global shares are up 167% and Australian shares are up 80%... Show More
Since the US election last November US and global shares rallied around 8% and Australian shares rallied around 12% to their recent highs. Related to this the US dollar, bond yields and some commodity prices also pushed significantly higher. Optimism regarding Donald Trump’s pro-growth policies were not the only factor... Show More
A year ago I thought that there was good reason not to fear the Fed raising rates1. However, its initial move combined with worries about just about everything to give us a bout of share market weakness into early 2016 before investors realised that there was indeed no reason to... Show More
2016 started badly for investors with worries about global growth and deflation. But global growth turned out okay &, despite political events, rising bond yields & disappointing Australian growth, the result has been a constrained but okay year for diversified investors. 2017 is likely to see another year of okay... Show More
After the recent experience with the Brexit vote in the UK and election of Donald Trump as President of the US, which are indicative of a nationalist backlash against the pro-globalisation establishment, there is a fear that Europe will go the same way with nationalist forces in Italy, Austria, France,... Show More
From record lows just after the Brexit vote, government bond yields have spiked higher. Ten-year bond yields have risen from 1.36% in the US to 2.2%, from -0.19% in Germany to 0.31% and from 1.81% in Australia to 2.64% in four months. This, in turn, has led to sharp falls... Show More
Any trader will tell you there are a few holes in the ‘Efficient Market Hypothesis‘ theory that suggests the market always prices assets efficiently. To gain an edge from efficiencies that may appear, Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Co-creator of AMP Capital’s new exchange traded managed fund, Dynamic... Show More
Empirical studies have demonstrated that asset allocation determines the vast majority of the returns that a portfolio will generate*, with a landmark study by Brinson, Hood and Singer calculating the figure to be as high as 91.5%. To fully leverage this, allocation ranges need to be completely flexible, and AMP... Show More
Remember Brexit? The UK’s unexpected vote in late June to leave the EU led to a dramatic collapse in market sentiment. At the point of maximum pessimism, the FTSE 100 was down 8% on the day. Yet within a week the FTSE had recovered all of its ground, and then... Show More
After decent gains in shares and other growth assets since February (& Brexit) we look to have hit another rough patch on the back of concerns around the Fed, global bond yields and event risk in the months ahead. However, with most share markets offering reasonable value, global monetary conditions... Show More
The mostly gloomy debate around the Australian economy often gives the impression we are in a constant state of crisis. But economic growth is pretty good, the economy has rebalanced without the ("inevitable") recession, the worst of the mining bust looks to be behind us, public infrastructure spending is ramping... Show More
The Australian housing picture is currently rather mixed. In this video, Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital explains that on some indicators, the Sydney and Melbourne market looks to have picked up, affordability is poor and auction clearance rates – while they have slowed... Show More
For the last two decades, advanced country central banks have been focussed on price stability and have played the first line of defence in stabilising the economic cycle whereas fiscal policy has played backup, focussing more on fairness and efficiency. This same approach has been applied since the global financial... Show More
Recent developments – including the rise of populism, developments in the South China Sea and around commodity prices along with relentless technological innovation – have relevance for longer term trends likely to affect investors. Being aware of such megatrends is critical given the short-term noise that surrounds markets. Key megatrends... Show More
British voters have voted in favour of Brexit: the British exit from the European Union (EU). This means that in the coming months, British and European leaders will begin negotiating the terms of Britain's departure. Britain's exit will affect the British economy, immigration policy, and lots more. It will take... Show More
Since the March 2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) low in share markets, Australian shares are up 65%, compared to a 145% gain in global shares in local currency terms and a 210% gain in US shares. Both global and US shares reached record highs last year and still remain above... Show More
A good place to start deciphering the share markets at present is the seasonal pattern in shares. Typically the period from May that we have just come through is the weakest period of the year. The September quarter has lived up to its reputation as being poor for shares with... Show More
