In the first podcast for 2018, Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital sits down with Livewire Editor, Patrick Poke. The topic at hand is Australia: the share market, the economy, wages, and of course, house prices. They discuss UBS's report late last year that... Show More
A common narrative on the Australian housing market is that it’s in a giant speculative bubble propelled by tax breaks, low interest rates and “liar loans” that have led to massive mortgage stress and that it’s all about to go bust, bringing down the banks and the economy with it.... Show More
It’s now a decade since the first problems with US sub-prime mortgages started to appear and nearly eight years since share markets hit their global financial crisis lows. From those lows in 2009 lows US shares are up 239%, global shares are up 167% and Australian shares are up 80%... Show More
Since the US election last November US and global shares rallied around 8% and Australian shares rallied around 12% to their recent highs. Related to this the US dollar, bond yields and some commodity prices also pushed significantly higher. Optimism regarding Donald Trump’s pro-growth policies were not the only factor... Show More
A year ago I thought that there was good reason not to fear the Fed raising rates1. However, its initial move combined with worries about just about everything to give us a bout of share market weakness into early 2016 before investors realised that there was indeed no reason to... Show More
2016 started badly for investors with worries about global growth and deflation. But global growth turned out okay &, despite political events, rising bond yields & disappointing Australian growth, the result has been a constrained but okay year for diversified investors. 2017 is likely to see another year of okay... Show More
After the recent experience with the Brexit vote in the UK and election of Donald Trump as President of the US, which are indicative of a nationalist backlash against the pro-globalisation establishment, there is a fear that Europe will go the same way with nationalist forces in Italy, Austria, France,... Show More
From record lows just after the Brexit vote, government bond yields have spiked higher. Ten-year bond yields have risen from 1.36% in the US to 2.2%, from -0.19% in Germany to 0.31% and from 1.81% in Australia to 2.64% in four months. This, in turn, has led to sharp falls... Show More
Any trader will tell you there are a few holes in the ‘Efficient Market Hypothesis‘ theory that suggests the market always prices assets efficiently. To gain an edge from efficiencies that may appear, Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Co-creator of AMP Capital’s new exchange traded managed fund, Dynamic... Show More
Empirical studies have demonstrated that asset allocation determines the vast majority of the returns that a portfolio will generate*, with a landmark study by Brinson, Hood and Singer calculating the figure to be as high as 91.5%. To fully leverage this, allocation ranges need to be completely flexible, and AMP... Show More