We sat down with Simon Doyle, Head of Fixed Income & Multi-Asset at Schroders, and asked him how he would allocate a million dollars today. In his responses to this tough question he made it clear that it’s not a good time to be building a big position in equities. Show More
With challenges for equity markets rising, even a defensively positioned balance fund, with just 45-50% equity exposure could struggle to deliver positive returns, warns Simon Doyle, Head of Fixed Income & Multi-Asset at Schroders, who emphasises that true flexibility in asset allocation will be critical ahead. Show More
The idea that we have entered a “low return” world is now consensus. The arguments are based on a combination of fundamental macro factors (a low growth world) and extended structural valuations in equity and debt markets, suggesting significant return headwinds. Consistently achieving solid real returns in this environment will... Show More
One thing Brexit has done is remind us about the inherent vulnerability of financial markets to these sorts of shocks. Our approach is anchored to the idea that the ability of markets to withstand these shocks is a function of valuations (cheap assets are in a much better position than... Show More
While markets have in many cases recovered from their Brexit jitters, we are remaining cautious. There is still significant uncertainty surrounding the consequences and timeframe of the eventual exit of Britain from the EU. Likewise, we are skeptical of the sustainability of the recovery in risk assets which seems in... Show More
We have argued for some time that central bank policies – while perhaps necessary from a political and mandate perspective – have been a pervasive force in distorting both asset prices and risk. It is possible (indeed probable) that the limits of this distortion are being tested. That is arguably... Show More
Sometimes names can tell you all you need to know, but sometimes they can be misleading. Take global high yield debt – a.k.a. “junk bonds” or “sub-investment grade debt”, often maligned as being risky and often avoided in investor portfolios for this reason. Risk though is relative and while they... Show More
The lack of clear direction in risk assets reflects several factors. Firstly, the global economy is both a negative and a positive. On the negative side – while the major economies are growing, growth rates are moderate, downside risks elevated and the lack of upward momentum means constrained corporate revenues... Show More
As investors we need to be alert to the fact that environments can and do change rapidly. It is possible that we could move from a low to a high return world very quickly. In part as a consequence of the prevailing concerns around the low return environment, there is... Show More
The prevailing and overwhelming consensus is that we are in a “low return” world. After all, with negative bond yields prevailing in many parts of the globe and extended structural valuations evident in key equity markets, it is empirically difficult to see how many markets could deliver decent size, positive... Show More
The first 3 months of 2016 were characterised by heightened volatility across asset markets with sharp falls in risk asset prices in January and early February which reversed in late February and March. Likewise, bond yields declined sharply as risk assets fell before stabilising / rising in conjunction with the... Show More
The New Year is typically celebrated with fireworks – the major cities all trying to outdo each other with both colour and impact. It was a seemingly similar start to 2016 for the major markets. Shares slumped across the globe, credit spreads widened, the oil price collapsed and bonds rallied... Show More
We enter 2016 faced with familiar challenges to 2015. While returns have been anaemic, increased volatility has not been sufficient to reset prospective returns to levels that would make us interested in deploying cash and taking more risk. In short, our return expectations for the major asset classes are not... Show More
A key differentiator this year when compared to 2013 and 2014 has been the growing bifurcation between the winning and losing assets. While 2013 could be broadly categorised as a year where most assets did well, 2014 was somewhat more discriminating but on balance a good year for most investors.... Show More
The last 3 months have been a rollercoaster ride. Anyone who’d slept through this period would be forgiven for thinking “what was all the fuss about”? Having seen markets rebound (US equities in particular) we have again cut our risk position, this time through buying protection against renewed volatility in... Show More