In my column today I write that the biggest winners from the royal commission are demonstrably the big banks while the largest losers are Australia’s mortgage brokers. Indeed, the top end of town have done an amazing job (as we predicted) convincing everyone that brokers should be made the “fall... Show More
In my AFR column I explain why UBS's banking analyst Jon Mott has jumped to incorrect conclusions in regard to the quality of Westpac's mortgage book (click on that link to read for free or AFR subs can click here for direct access). Excerpt enclosed: Show More
Sydney’s property market recently caught the attention of BBC News who wrote: “Is the Sydney market stable? Not according to the tellingly named UBS Housing Bubble Index. Released in September, it named Sydney the fourth most likely city in the world to face a housing correction. The most bubbly city... Show More
It’s been a quiet month for gold, with the yellow metal up slightly, despite a reduction in net longs, minor ETF outflows, and a rally in risk assets. Sentiment has definitely turned though, with a buy-the-dips mentality emerging amongst banks, including UBS and Credit Suisse, whilst Peter Grandich thinks “the... Show More
On Monday, a Swiss friend was bemoaning the dramatic fall in the share prices of Credit Suisse and UBS. Indeed, in terms of market cap UBS, CS and Deutsche Bank combined were worth slightly more than Commonwealth Bank. Despite working in finance, the Swiss friend has not heard of this... Show More
In the Beige Book, which gathers anecdotal information on current economic decisions by each Federal Reserve Bank ahead of the FOMC meeting, there were 11 mentions of “China.” (see UBS chart below) Show More
UBS says Orocobre, with its new long-life low-cost Olaroz mine in Argentina and large resource, is the standout in the sector, with other hopefuls still largely at the exploration stage. Tesla's much-hyped launch of its Powerwall lithium-ion home battery late last month has galvanised the market, focusing attention on the... Show More
“At this month's UBS Investor Forum, the recent weak economic data out of the United States was a key topic. The main question was how this would affect the Federal Reserve's willingness to raise interest rates. Participants could not agree on what the Fed was looking at, be it inflation,... Show More
UBS: Central Bank policy divergence the major theme for 2015. Andreas Koester of UBS Global Asset Management says the divergent movements of Central Bank policy settings will be the major theme of 2015. He says any move away from ZIRP is likely to have material disruptive impacts. 'As soon as... Show More
UBS: Bull markets die from excesses - not old age: The fundamental growth in the current five-year old bull market can be attributed largely to an impressive rebound in corporate profits. In the long run, while market valuations tend to oscillate within a wide range around their long term average,... Show More
There are some possibly worrying signs for the IPO markets as the pin gets pulled on the Mantra float. Joint lead managers Macquarie and UBS pulled the pin on the float at the last minute due to lackluster demand from institutional investors. Mantra was looking to raise $400million in the... Show More
Perpetual has lifted its stake in Prime Media Group (ASX: PRT) to 15%, further solidifying it's position as majority shareholder. According to The Australian, Head of equities Matt Williams confirmed Perpetual bought stock in Paul Ramsay's sell-down. UBS were responsible for placing the healthcare group founder's $95.7 million stake with... Show More
UBS on China: In the late 1990s it was called the Greenspan put. The notion that investors in risk assets were safe because Greenspan (and the Fed) would be there to save them with lower rates. We now know where that way of thinking got us. It was this kind... Show More
Good article in the AFR on resources outlook and comments from UBS head of resources Dr Glyn Lawcock. He expects 2014 to be another tough year for resources but is optimistic for uncrowded spaces such as the uranium sector. It's been three years since the Fukushima disaster in Japan, but... Show More
UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti, says that the sell off in emerging market assets has gone too far. What we are seeing right now is a lot of money exiting the emerging markets, short term, it looks a little bit overdone. Global investors pulled $6.3 billion from developing-nation equities in the... Show More
The Chairman of UBS Global Asset Management sees inflation as a key risk during what he describes as a remarkably experimental time. John Fraser said he was concerned that many central banks had become too concerned with the broader objective of boosting economic growth rather than focusing on inflation and... Show More
UBS is expecting ECM volumes to increase in 2014 supported by activity in the IPO market, secondary block trades and funding for M&A activity. In 2013 equity capital markets are set to record a total volume of around $24 billion which is 15% up on 2012. IPO activity is expected... Show More
This is an interesting piece on how institutions rather than corporates are now looking at block trades. Essentially as HFT took hold of the market institutions were finding it harder to get set with decent positions without moving the market. According to this article the value of institutional block trades... Show More
UBS Rates Strategist Matthew Johnson says the RBA is now more confident that sustained low rates are positively impacting the Australian economy. I think they've upgraded their assessment of the domestic economy. They're more sure that low interest rates are boosting the economy but they are also a little bit... Show More