Obviously in the near term, week-to-week, month-to-month it’s impossible to predict currencies, but over any medium-term period – you can at least, in our view, make some informed judgments around what the shape of the probability distribution of possible outcomes looks like. Show More
Asian markets performed well in the last year. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index (AUD) is up 14% in FY18, outperforming the ASX 200 by approximately 5%. Looking forward to FY19, there are 5 critical questions that will determine the path of equity markets in Asia: Show More
Gold prices have steadied in the last few trading days, after correcting over the last month in the face of a rallying USD, and a sharp unwind in speculative positions. Show More
Gold prices have continued their march higher in the last 24 hours, currently trading near USD $1355oz. Silver has also rallied, continuing the impressive run in precious metal prices which dates back to mid December 2017, with gold and silver up 9% and 12% respectively in this current rally. Show More
With a performance that is on track to 20-bag this year, there is little doubt it’s going to be a very Merry Christmas for Bitcoin enthusiasts, many of whom have made truly astonishing gains in 2017. Show More
Type “Bitcoin is a Bubble” into Google and you’ll get 31,800,000 results, a clear indication of how many times people have, incorrectly so far, called a top in the price of the worlds most famous cryptocurrency. Show More
Precious metals prices have endured a difficult few weeks, after failing to push through USD $1350oz in early September. Continued strength in US equity markets, greater pricing in of an expected rate hike from the Fed, and a rally in the USD have all contributed to the weakness, as has... Show More
Precious metal prices have been in full retreat the past few weeks, with the price of gold declining toward USD $1300oz. This pullback has had a number of drivers including an easing of the ‘safe haven’ bid as markets fade the rhetoric to do with Korea, the USD catching a... Show More
After being range bound and unable to break through the key US $1,300oz level since Nov 2016, gold has staged a sharp rally overnight on the back of heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Show More
As global rates start to rise, Australia may follow in the short-term, but structural issues will prevent the RBA from hiking rates far, explains Chris Watling, CEO of Longview Economics. Any rate-hikes from the RBA will be short-lived, he says, and those structural issues will force Australian rates to zero. Show More
Gold has been getting a lot of good press lately, with the escalation of tensions on the Korean peninsula seeing the yellow metal push back toward USD $1290oz, whilst in local currency terms we are back above AUD $1630oz. Show More
Local market finished slightly positive to end the week despite weaker commodities and flat AUDUSD. Market still digesting the US Fed outlook….US leading the sentiment and China MIA for now. China delivered a big cash injection to cater for the seasonal cash crush…but sentiment still weak. The best performing sectors... Show More
We are used to the experience of economic developments influencing and sometimes determining political events. This past year we have seen political events influencing markets and economic forecasts more than usual. The rise of the populists as a reaction to the specific disaffection with wage stagnation, immigration and terrorism is... Show More
Local market started weak and then sentiment nosedived as more details of the White House debacles filtered through the media and drove US futures lower. The big risk with US politics at this point is…anything could happen. Market hates uncertainty…and volatility indices are at historical lows…something should give and the... Show More
Today’s rally notwithstanding, gold has had a relatively low profile start to 2017. This is in stark contract to a year ago, when a volatile stock market and the surprise implementation of NIRP in Japan led to range of optimistic forecasts and proclamations of “a new bull market in precious... Show More
As the global economy begins to reflate, the Fed continues to delay rate increases, and China pumping further stimulus into its economy, commodities have enjoyed a healthy rally this year. But can it continue? Chris Watling, Chief Market Strategist at Longview Economics, thinks not. The iron ore price has gone... Show More
CBA Chief Currency Strategist & Head of International Economics, Richard Grace speaks with CommSec’s Tom Piotrowski about what could happen to the USD if Donald Trump won the US Presidential election. He expects a 10% lift in the USD will be driven by the capital inflows chasing higher asset price... Show More
It’s been a quiet month for gold, with the yellow metal up slightly, despite a reduction in net longs, minor ETF outflows, and a rally in risk assets. Sentiment has definitely turned though, with a buy-the-dips mentality emerging amongst banks, including UBS and Credit Suisse, whilst Peter Grandich thinks “the... Show More
The US dollar lost its safe haven play last week when it encountered major resistance from its 200 days moving average level, according to Saxo Capital Markets Sydney-based trader James Kim. In the next few days, the US Dollar Index might be testing re-entering the channel it broke during the... Show More
Following suggestions that the US Federal Reserve is ready to raise interest rates in coming months, all that matters right now in the market is the Fed and USD, says Saxo Capital Market’s Global Macro Strategist Kay Van-Petersen. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Friday that the central bank could... Show More
