Saul Eslake downbeat on Australia's prospects: We attach a ~75% probability to a scenario in which Australian real GDP growth slows from around 2.75%pa in 2013...

Tom McKay

Saul Eslake downbeat on Australia's prospects: We attach a ~75% probability to a scenario in which Australian real GDP growth slows from around 2.75%pa in 2013 and 2014 to just under 2% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016. In this scenario the unemployment rate peaks at 6.75% in early 2016. If this plays out then the combination of flat incomes with rising unemployment will find it difficult to support current asset prices. (VIEW LINK)


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