US companies had a strong run in earnings and revenue growth during 2018, with numbers largely surprising on the upside. A run like that looks unlikely in 2019, as the benefits of substantial fiscal stimulus from US tax cuts and greater public spending wane. US companies are already signalling that these earnings will be hard to maintain. This growth moderation in the US, we believe, is one of the biggest challenges that will face investors in 2019.
The broader global economy may also have a hard time keeping pace with 2018 levels. Brexit negotiations, the Italian budget, emerging market volatility and interest rates are some of the macro risks investors need to watch out for next year.