global macro

One of the most important questions facing markets over the next 12 months is whether the US services sector can keep the broader US economy out of recession despite...

Since the beginning of this year, financial markets and expectations have turned decidedly bearish. Concerns about a Sino-US trade war, along with the so-called...

There are many ways to create value without showing after-tax profits.This is obvious to anyone with a biotech background (analysis of historic financials is no way to...

Are equities currently expensive and is now a good time to invest? We have been asked this question often by investors who are searching for a return above cash,...

The decline in US interest rates by the Federal Reserve to combat the GFC has left a mark on the investment landscape and triggered the rise of a new bubble – the...

Back in February, Chris Watling, CEO and Chief Market Strategist at Longview Economics, wrote that a recession in Australia was likely, and that rates would be cut to...

With stocks near all-time-highs, there is steadily accumulating evidence that this may be a historic time to sell. PMIs are diving. PMIs give false signals (eg 2016...

Populism is spreading rapidly and globally, and becoming more aggressive in its implementation and execution. It traverses national borders and can infiltrate...

Markets have changed and probably not for the better. Investor complacency seems to be the norm as their reliance on central banks and policymakers to come to the...

It’s a rare opportunity to get to sit down with an economist of the calibre of Tim Toohey from Ellerston Capital. He was formerly the Managing Director, Chief...

Let’s start by reviewing what the yield curve actually is. Consider a range of durations for government notes, for example, you can have 3-month notes, 1-year notes,...

In my last blog, I provided an overview of Vega Capital’s model for identifying and pre-empting recessions in the United States. Last Thursday (at WeWorks Martin...

Investors have likely heard asset allocation specialists advise increasing portfolio exposure to 'alternatives' given the current market conditions. Invesco's...

Let’s start by defining what a recession actually is. Google’s dictionary defines it as ‘a period of temporary economic decline during which trading and industrial...

We have seen the second sizeable sell-off this year. The SP500 has dropped -7.80% in October (so far), not quite matching the fall of -11.8% in Jan-Feb 2018. The...

Warren Buffett recently gave an interview where he reiterated his firm belief in the US economy, which justifies Berkshire Hathaway’s investment focus on quality US...

While absolute valuation has limited use for timing cyclical bull and bear markets, it does provide insights into market sensitivities to challenging (or indeed...