housing

With Australia’s economic growth stumbling at its slowest pace since the GFC; our two largest export partners, China and Japan, decelerating and contracting...

Today I write that housing boom is tracking more or less exactly as we expected, and based on the RBA’s model of housing dynamics one should pencil in total capital...

In July of 2019, the Australian Bureau of Statistics announced average Australian household wealth had exceeded the million dollar mark. Unsurprisingly, owner occupied...

There’s no doubt growth is much harder to come by these days. While Australia, along with the rest of the world, is experiencing some growth, it’s not the strong...

Guys the latest episode of our very popular Complexity Premia podcast is live! You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Apple Podcasts here...

Today I write that while there are reasons to be optimistic about the next 12 months, being psychologically fractured in your thinking is no less important. More...

Our recent US research trip highlighted the tailwind to wealth and consumption from house prices. In discussions across the seven states we visited (California,...

Back in 2017, we outlined the case for an Australian recession based on a retrenchment of household spending brought about by a negative wealth effect. At the time the...

It is time to unveil a new expectation: if the RBA continues cutting through conventional and unconventional means, which is our central case, I expect that this...

On Thursday I debated and demolished my old foe Dr Steve Keen (of doomsday fame) on the contentious subject of Aussie housing. You might recall that Steve was the guy...

In predictably cutting its cash rate to a new record low of 0.75 per cent in October, the RBA moved itself one meeting away from initiating quantitative easing (QE),...

This weekend I write that the ECB's decision to start buying bonds again to reduce the long-term cost of capital (aka QE)---coupled with the Fed cutting in a few...

Today I explain why this housing boom is very different to its predecessors, and should not constrain the RBA from cutting rates further to hit its inflation and...

Today I show that the great Aussie housing boom is well and truly back, with Sydney and Melbourne house prices surging in August, up by north of 1.2% in the month...

Today I write that the RBA has been spinning stories (basically blatant BS) on housing, the most miraculous of which is the completely fallacious claim that cutting...

This week I write that the housing party is just getting started (click on that link to read the column or AFR subs can click here). Recall we forecast the end of the...

Today I explain why ANZ was nuts not to fully cut its lending rates in May; why it will be even harder for all banks to pass along the next RBA cut, which could come...

The latest episode of Coolabah Capital’s Complexity Premia markets/investing podcast is now live over at Apple here or at Podbean here.In the latest episode we...

In my column today I reveal that there are some tentative signs that the Aussie housing market may be already turning with a recovery assured by: an RBA rate cut in...

In my column today I analyse why ScoMo really won, noting that "during the week I advised my investors, media colleagues and friends that it would not be surprising if...