rba

Latest news and analysis on rba

Macro

Reserve Bank's inflation challenge

The Reserve Bank's battle to tame inflation will be a slog. Here's why.
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Kiryll Prakapenka
Fat Tail Investment Research
Macro

National income rebounds and companies keep hiring

Business turnover rebounded in Q3, while payroll jobs continue to trend higher.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The RBA hikes interest rates again. But will this be the last one?

425 basis points worth of rate hikes are in the can. But will there be another 25 before Christmas?
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

Markets are less sure the Fed and RBA will hit their inflation targets

Market measures of expected inflation have picked up, which is unusual this late in the cycle.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

A likely "material upward revision" to the RBA's inflation outlook

The big forecast miss on Q3 inflation risks a slower return of inflation to target
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

RBA should hike in November on higher inflation

Underlying inflation is tracking well above the RBA's forecast profile
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Higher Q3 inflation should see the RBA raise rates

The very tight labour market is still easing a little, ahead of key inflation data next week.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Are the five horsemen of interest rates actually doing their job?

RBA Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Christopher Kent discussed the five channels of monetary policy and what it means for inflation.
Sara Allen
Livewire Markets
Macro

Cash flows and the effectiveness of monetary policy

Higher interest rates have the same estimated effect on inflation in Australia, the euro area, and the USA.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

5 things you need to know about the RBA's October interest rate decision

The RBA announced a hold on interest rates for October, but don’t get too comfortable yet.
Sara Allen
Livewire Markets
Macro

US Federal Reserve held rates at 5.5%, Canadian median CPI y/y rose 4.1%

Weekly Update | 23rd September 2023
Hue Frame
Frame Funds Management
Macro

The potential economic impact of a China shock on Australia

A shock to Chinese demand would mainly be borne by lower incomes, with a lower AUD a critical shock absorber.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Australia's Rate Surprise

Key Points: • Australia is at, or close to the end, of the fastest monetary policy tightening cycle since the late 1980s. • Every economic cycle is unique, but most...
Alex Cathcart
Drummond Capital Partners
Macro

Strong unit labour costs challenge the RBA

Strong unit labour costs risk delaying the return of inflation to the 2-3% target band
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Education

Reflections ahead of Philip Lowe’s last speech

Arguably the most significant lesson is that future Governors should intervene with monetary policy far less than he did.
Jonathan Rochford
Narrow Road Capital
Macro

Philip Lowe led the RBA for 7 years, but what legacy has he left behind?

In this wire, I outline five pivotal moments from the soon-to-be ex-governor's time at the helm of the RBA.
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

Average weekly earnings grow strongly

Another measure of wages shows labour costs are growing strongly.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Some colour on the distribution of pay rises

Workers securing pay rises are achieving large increases.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Education

ASX stocks pricier than you think

The diminutive equity risk premium suggests Aussie stocks are more expensive than you think.
Kiryll Prakapenka
Fat Tail Investment Research
Macro

What’s driving inflation and what does it mean for monetary policy?

There has been an argument in recent months suggesting corporate profits are driving inflation. In this wire, I'll argue why that's wrong.
Jonathan Kearns
Challenger
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