ASX 200 to rise + Iron ore prices at six-week highs on China stimulus bets

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

MARKETS

• S&P 500 higher in a relatively uneventful session with limited upside
• Market lacking directional drivers ahead of next week’s US CPI print and Fed decision
• Speculator positioning in S&P 500 futures remains most net short since Sep 2007
• S&P 500 close to 20% off Oct 22 lows – 10 out of 13 times stocks gained 20% off bear market lows showed that 'the low' was in and a year later, up 17.7% on average
• FOMO driving retail investors into tech stocks (FT)
• Bank of America strategists say 10th straight week of retail investor selling could be a bullish signal for stocks (Bloomberg)

STOCKS

• TSMC says capex to low end of prior guidance range (Bloomberg)
• Intel to sell US$1.5bn stake in its self-driving unit Mobileye (Reuters)
• Apple acquires AR headset startup Mira (The Verge)
• Tesla says all Model 3s now eligible for full $7,500 federal tax credit (Bloomberg)
• GitLab posts smaller-than-expected loss, revenues rose 45% year-on-year (CNBC)
• SEC says Binance mishandled billions in customer funds (Bloomberg)

ECONOMY

• German factory orders down for second month (Bloomberg)
• Japan real wages declines for 13th straight month (Bloomberg)
• UK consumer spending slows in May as high food prices bite (Reuters)
• RBA raises cash rate, warns some further tightening may be required (Bloomberg)
• ECB says consumer expectations for inflation eased a lot in April (Bloomberg)
• ECB's Knot says core CPI stubborn but central rate hikes starting to work (Reuters)
• China's state banks told to lower cap on dollar deposit rates (Reuters)
• China may cut rates further in H2, government researcher says (Reuters)
  
  

Deeper Dive

S&P 500 outlook: TGA liquidity drain, outflows and semis

A few interesting observations about where US markets are at:

• JPMorgan: “We retain a cautious stance on risk assets ... as a looming liquidity contraction is added to recession concerns. ... broad liquidity in the US ... will contract by another US$1.1tn from here ... the worst US broad liquidity contraction since ... after the Lehman crisis.”
• BMO: “It has become increasingly clear ... stock market resilience is here to stay ... labor market strength has remained intact ... the anticipated recipe for disaster is simply not present ... we are raising our 2023 S&P 500 year-end price target to 4,550 from 4,300.”
• BofA: "Last week, clients were net sellers of US equities for the first time in three weeks. Single stocks saw outflows for the first time in three weeks and ETFs saw inflows for the third straight week ... private clients were net sellers for a tenth consecutive week, while institutional and hedge fund clients were both net buyers for the third consecutive week."
• Citi: "Feels like semis have gotten ahead of themselves ... Given the 40% valuation premium the SOX has versus the S&P 500, we believe semis are due for a pullback ... AI spending could be cannibalising CPU spending as budgets are not going up in a weaker macro environment."

Sectors to Watch

Iron Ore: Singapore iron ore future are up 7.9% in June to a six-week high of US$106.85 amid growing expectations of more property focused stimulus measures in China. In addition, imported iron ore prices in China have been propelled by "better sentiment in the market during the May 29 to June 2 week, boosted by new data that gave market insiders confidence about near-term demand for steel and iron ore," according to Mysteel. US-listed BHP and Rio Tinto also rise 1.6% and 1.2% overnight.

eCommerce: The Global X eCommerce ETF rallied 3.3% overnight to a two-month high. Kogan's (ASX: KGN) chart is also holding up relatively well and trying to break out to levels not seen since April 2022. At the same time, several ASX-listed retail stocks have all nosedived more than 10% following trading updates in the past few weeks (e.g. Baby Bunting, Universal Store and Adairs). Is Kogan an exception?