Good news on US inflation points to the Fed on hold next month

The Fed seems likely to hold rates steady at its final policy meeting this year.
Kieran Davies

Coolabah Capital

Good news on US inflation suggests that the Fed will hold the funds rate steady at its last meeting of the year. 

The Federal Reserve meets for the final time this year on 12-13 December, where the November CPI report is published on the first day of the meeting, barring a delay caused by a possible government shutdown. 

In September, the Fed had forecast one last rate hike this year, but unless the November report shows a spike in inflation, it seems likely that the FOMC will keep the funds rate on hold at 5¼-5½% next month given the improvement in inflation to date. 

For example, last night’s data showed that core US inflation came in below expectations in October, increasing by 0.2% in the month, which was the smallest monthly increase since July. 

In trend terms, annualised monthly inflation is has been steady at just under 3% for the past few months, which is the best result since early 2021. 

Core goods have driven much of the improvement, as goods prices continue to fall, down for the fifth month in a row, with annualised disinflation running at 3¾% in trend terms. 

Core services prices rose by 0.3%, which was the smallest increase since June, although one month’s improvement was not enough to stop the annualised trend inflation rate edging up to a still-high 5¼%. 

Core services excluding housing showed a similar story, with annualised trend inflation rate edging up to 5¼%. 

As an alternative measure of underlying inflation, the trimmed mean CPI also increased at a slower rate of 0.2%, although the annualised trend inflation rate was unchanged at 3½%.    

US core inflation has continued to improve
US core inflation has continued to improve
The improvement in inflation has been driven by goods
prices, which have fallen recently
The improvement in inflation has been driven by goods prices, which have fallen recently
     
Services inflation has also improved from last year,
but is still high
Services inflation has also improved from last year, but is still high
An alternative measure of inflation, the trimmed mean
CPI, has also improved from last year
An alternative measure of inflation, the trimmed mean CPI, has also improved from last year
........
Investment Disclaimer Past performance does not assure future returns. All investments carry risks, including that the value of investments may vary, future returns may differ from past returns, and that your capital is not guaranteed. This information has been prepared by Coolabah Capital Investments Pty Ltd (ACN 153 327 872). It is general information only and is not intended to provide you with financial advice. You should not rely on any information herein in making any investment decisions. To the extent permitted by law, no liability is accepted for any loss or damage as a result of any reliance on this information. The Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) for the funds should be considered before deciding whether to acquire or hold units in it. A PDS for these products can be obtained by visiting www.coolabahcapital.com. Neither Coolabah Capital Investments Pty Ltd, Equity Trustees Ltd (ACN 004 031 298) nor their respective shareholders, directors and associated businesses assume any liability to investors in connection with any investment in the funds, or guarantees the performance of any obligations to investors, the performance of the funds or any particular rate of return. The repayment of capital is not guaranteed. Investments in the funds are not deposits or liabilities of any of the above-mentioned parties, nor of any Authorised Deposit-taking Institution. The funds are subject to investment risks, which could include delays in repayment and/or loss of income and capital invested. Past performance is not an indicator of nor assures any future returns or risks. Coolabah Capital Investments (Retail) Pty Limited (CCIR) (ACN 153 555 867) is an authorised representative (#000414337) of Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd (CCII) (AFSL 482238). Both CCIR and CCII are wholly owned subsidiaries of Coolabah Capital Investments Pty Ltd. Equity Trustees Ltd (AFSL 240975) is the Responsible Entity for these funds. Equity Trustees Ltd is a subsidiary of EQT Holdings Limited (ACN 607 797 615), a publicly listed company on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX: EQT). Forward-Looking Disclaimer This presentation contains some forward-looking information. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and undue reliance should not be placed on them. Such forward-looking statements necessarily involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual performance and financial results in future periods to differ materially from any projections of future performance or result expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Although forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are based upon what Coolabah Capital Investments Pty Ltd believes are reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Coolabah Capital Investments Pty Ltd undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements if circumstances or management’s estimates or opinions should change except as required by applicable securities laws. The reader is cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.

Kieran Davies
Chief Macro Strategist
Coolabah Capital

Based in Sydney, Kieran Davies is Chief Macro Strategist at Coolabah Capital Investments, an asset manager with 40 executives and over $8 billion in fixed-income strategies. Kieran is responsible for macroeconomic research and investment strategy,...

I would like to

Only to be used for sending genuine email enquiries to the Contributor. Livewire Markets Pty Ltd reserves its right to take any legal or other appropriate action in relation to misuse of this service.

Personal Information Collection Statement
Your personal information will be passed to the Contributor and/or its authorised service provider to assist the Contributor to contact you about your investment enquiry. They are required not to use your information for any other purpose. Our privacy policy explains how we store personal information and how you may access, correct or complain about the handling of personal information.

Comments

Sign In or Join Free to comment