trailing earnings

Next year’s estimated earnings massively exceed today’s actual earnings, and the market’s P/E is sky-high. They augur much lower returns.

“Experts” obsess about irrelevancies, overlook what’s crucial – and are once again prodding the herd towards the risk of large losses.

Investors greatly overstate the short-term effect of earnings and ignore the long-term impact of dividends. The implications are momentous.

It’s “an article of faith among Wall Street research departments,” wrote David Dreman in Contrarian Investment Strategy (1979): “nothing is as important in the...