Fixed Income

Today I argue that while Labor have given ScoMo a shot of winning the election with its shocking recent mis-steps and its bizarre tax-everything-that-moves-platform, the media coverage and political analysis has never been more biased in all likelihood because those inside the beltway fervently believe that ScoMo does not have... Show More

In late 2018 the RBNZ proposed implementing some of the most conservative capital requirements globally for the NZ banking system. Ironically these proposed changes may not end up materially improving the stability of the NZ banking system despite the potential for material costs to be imposed on the local economy. Proposed... Show More

Understanding how the cycle is progressing has been especially difficult in the post-GFC years. The apparent impotence of monetary policy via its traditional credit (and inflation) creation channel contrasts with the relative strength of labour employment. Yet monetary policy has become much more important for markets, as central banks have... Show More

Risk assets face an uncertain future as the Fed’s about-turn on monetary policy has left many investors wondering what’s next. However, according to Charlie Jamieson, Chief Investment Officer at Jamieson Coote Bonds, government bonds are well placed, with two clear pathways to a strong performance. On the one hand, a... Show More

A few quick thoughts on recent credit spread movements in the Tier 2 subordinated bond and the Additional Tier 1 capital hybrid markets. First, the screenshot below shows the clean price of the most recently issued, 5 year major bank subordinated Tier 2 bond. The impact of APRA’s November 2018 consultation... Show More

Investors are concerned about the deterioration of corporate debt quality, marked by lower credit ratings and a large share of covenant-lite issuance in the loan market. Credit is typically a non-recessionary asset class and should perform well so long as there is no impending recession, which at the moment looks unlikely.... Show More

When considering investments, returns are one factor but another is risk. What is the prospect of losing money if things don’t go to plan? This is one reason why investors look to include debt-based investments in their portfolios.The team at Qualitas invests predominantly in Commercial Real Estate (CRE) loans secured... Show More

Today I write about an interview this week with one of Australia's most successful and innovative funds management pioneers, Magellan's Hamish Douglass, who says he would have no issue with ASIC applying the Future of Financial Advice (FOFA) laws to the burgeoning listed investment company/trust (LIC or LIT) space to... Show More

A column in The Australian over the weekend argued that mums and dads should think about selling their fully franked bank Tier 1 hybrids to buy unfranked Tier 2 subordinated bonds. But this analysis is flawed on many bases, the most obvious of which is that the unfranked cash yields... Show More

Last fortnight bond yields globally dropped to the low end of recent ranges and reached new record low levels in Australia, driven by a growing consensus view of slowing economic growth and lower interest rates going forward. While there is much uncertainty as to whether this scenario actually materialises, the... Show More

Do you remember last year when US 10-year government bonds cracked 3%? I do. Everyone started talking about flattening yield curves, a potential recession in the US and Jamie Dimon said the 10-year could hit 5%… Widely regarded as the risk-free rate used for the pricing of all other assets the... Show More

The fed is now unwinding the biggest monetary experiment in history, which saw $3.6 trillion of asset purchases from the Fed between 2008 and 2015. This is unknown territory, so when we sat down with Charlie Jamieson, CIO at Jamieson Coote Bonds we took the chance to get his perspective.... Show More

East Coast residential property continues to soften as credit tightens, but in this interview with Charlie Jamieson, CIO at Jamieson Coote Bonds, he warns that property investors might make matters worse by becoming forced sellers in a falling market. Charlie outlines the mechanics of margin calls and forced selling, and told... Show More

Fixed interest is a core part of any good portfolio, but just how well is the asset class understood? In this exclusive Q&A with Livewire, Jay Sivapalan, Co-Head of Australian Fixed Interest and Portfolio Manager at Janus Henderson Investors discusses the biggest theme in the market today, where he's seeing... Show More

The ‘reach for yield’ has caused formerly defensive portfolios to gradually venture into higher risk assets that could leave them exposed to downturns. As a consequence, Gopi Karunakaran, Portfolio Manager at Ardea Investment Management urges investors to question just how defensive their portfolios really are. In this short interview he... Show More

Sudden outbreaks in volatility through this year have spooked the equity markets, and investors are questioning if more is to come. We spoke with rate market expert, Gopi Karunakaran, Portfolio Manager at Ardea Investment Management, who warned that there could be more to come. In this short video, he focuses... Show More

Chris Rands, Portfolio Manager at Nikko Asset Management, believes that rates are unlikely to rise significantly from current levels. With debt at very high levels across the world, servicing that debt would raise major challenges, which could steady the hand of central bankers. “In Australia, it’s the household sector; in the... Show More

In Australia today, growth is forecast to be around 2.5%, commodity prices are stable, jobs are strong, and inflation is low and stable. But in the background, risks are rising, explains Chris Rands from Nikko Asset Management. “The biggest risk that’s sitting there is the house price situation... The flow-through effect... Show More

When a triple-B-rated utility company issues a 3-year bond at a negative yield, perhaps it’s time for the credit cycle to call last orders at the bar? Gopi Karunakaran, Portfolio Manager at Ardea Investment Management flags some late-cycle behaviour, and warns of an imminent structural shift. Gopi compares what is... Show More

Stuart Dear, Deputy Head of Fixed Income at Schroders, believes that value in bonds has improved in both absolute and relative terms. The yields on offer in US 10-year government bonds have risen from a low of ~1.50% to current levels closer to 3%. This move has happened at a... Show More