Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.
The debate over the longevity of the economic boom in China has long divided economists and financial market participants. On one side are believers that China’s economic miracle will continue, which will soon make the Chinese economy larger than the US. The other side sees China’s economic growth as largely... Show More
I came across a person in the street wearing a t-shirt that had printed on it “What if Google was wrong?” It was unnerving. Google is the answer to every question from the most mundane to the most complex. Comfort and certainty come from assuming Google is the definitive arbiter... Show More
If you’re paying attention to US politics, you may be aware of an emerging new economic theory supported by many US Democrats, including Congress ‘freshman’ Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. This economic framework is generally known as Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT. There have been a number of ‘hot takes’ from economists and journalists... Show More
The year is 1991. I’m trading Australian interest rates on the proprietary desk for Bankers Trust. The desk is headed by Richard Farleigh. And the quarterly CPI number is about to be released. In those days, there was 3 opportunities to “trade” a CPI number. First our economist, Andre Morony,... Show More
It’s a rare opportunity to get to sit down with an economist of the calibre of Tim Toohey from Ellerston Capital. He was formerly the Managing Director, Chief Economist, and Head of Macro Strategy for Australia and New Zealand at Goldman Sachs, where he earned a reputation as one of... Show More
The Australian Bureau of Statistics has released its latest Construction Work Done figures for the December quarter. Not surprising, residential housing activity looks to have peaked and should soon begin to decline. Broadly speaking, it’s fair to say that the story we have been telling on house prices hitting the... Show More
There’s been a lot of talk of inverted yield curves in the US and whether they portend a recession or a stock market crash. But, I wonder whether we need to watch the yield curve as much as exuberance in stocks themselves?US yield curve inversionCurrently about 3/5ths of the US... Show More
There has been a material slowdown in China’s growth rate in recent years which in part is due to regulatory upheaval in the shadow banking sector. Here we offer an update on the fine balance achieved to date by Chinese authorities between boosting the resilience of the financial sector by... Show More
The Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference is an annual event bringing together the best business and investment minds globally. At the Conference just concluded we were fortunate to have two current US Federal Reserve (Fed) Presidents presenting to the conference plus former Fed Governor Janet Yellen. The US yield curve may... Show More
The minority of Australian TV viewers that chose the Budget Address rather than tuning in to Married at First Sight were still entertained by coverage that combined poor quality acting with choreographed hugs. Whether this is a government that has decided to leave is unclear. They seem to want... Show More
The Australian dollar has emerged a little stronger after a very busy week. Most of the headlines were positive, with the one real negative coming from the RBA. While there was no surprise in the steady hand on the cash rate at 1.5% or in much of the language of... Show More
On 2 April 2019, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg delivered Australia’s federal budget for 2019-20. Coming ahead of a likely May federal election, the budget lays the foundation for the government’s re-election campaign, and highlights the Coalition’s economic management with the first budget-year surplus in over a decade. The budget also promises... Show More
After 27 years, the Australian economy is finally facing a recession. Neither monetary nor fiscal policy look set to save it and yet again we appear highly dependent on a Chinese surprise.The outlook for the Australian economy is bleak. Gross domestic product and consumption growth are expected to fall. The... Show More
Obviously in the near term, week-to-week, month-to-month it’s impossible to predict currencies, but over any medium-term period – you can at least, in our view, make some informed judgments around what the shape of the probability distribution of possible outcomes looks like. Show More
First, a big thanks for the incredible interest in, and downloads of, our Complexity Premia podcast! We have just published the third episode where we: discuss analysis showing that the government’s fiscal budget is already in surplus and what this means for the looming election; reflect on the heated and... Show More
The US dollar was stronger against almost all major currencies this week. This was not so much due to positive news on the US economy but instead in response to negative developments elsewhere. The euro for instance tumbled on Germany’s very weak manufacturing survey for March. Show More
Someone (maybe it was Albert Einstein) once opined that: “Insanity Is Doing the Same Thing Over and Over Again and Expecting Different Results” Show More
U.S. consumer confidence is high, unemployment is well below historical averages, while supply constraints mean that plenty of jobs are now within reach for many Americans. However, some forward indicators are showing signs of risks brewing on the horizon. Show More
A combination of better-than-expected US growth, a ramping up in quantitative tightening in the US, and a massive liquidity injection in China have seen Wilson Asset Management Chairman and Chief Investment Officer, Geoff Wilson, alter his market outlook from being “ultra” to only “mildly” bearish. Show More
At Crestone’s most recent investment forum, we asked panellists (Jacob Mitchell, Chief Investment Officer at Antipodes Partners, Brett Gillespie, Head of Global Macro at Ellerston Capital, Nathan Parkin, Investment Director at Ethical Partners Funds Management, Thomas Vester, Chief Investment Officer at LGM Investments, Vimal Gor, Head of Bond, Income and... Show More