Macro

Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.

Macro
Tracey McNaughton

I came across a person in the street wearing a t-shirt that had printed on it “What if Google was wrong?” It was unnerving. Google is the answer to every question from the most mundane to the most complex. Comfort and certainty come from assuming Google is the definitive arbiter... Show More

Macro
Brett Gillespie

The year is 1991. I’m trading Australian interest rates on the proprietary desk for Bankers Trust. The desk is headed by Richard Farleigh. And the quarterly CPI number is about to be released. In those days, there was 3 opportunities to “trade” a CPI number. First our economist, Andre Morony,... Show More

Macro
Patrick Poke

It’s a rare opportunity to get to sit down with an economist of the calibre of Tim Toohey from Ellerston Capital. He was formerly the Managing Director, Chief Economist, and Head of Macro Strategy for Australia and New Zealand at Goldman Sachs, where he earned a reputation as one of... Show More

Macro
Chris Rands

The Australian Bureau of Statistics has released its latest Construction Work Done figures for the December quarter. Not surprising, residential housing activity looks to have peaked and should soon begin to decline. Broadly speaking, it’s fair to say that the story we have been telling on house prices hitting the... Show More

Macro
Roger Montgomery

There’s been a lot of talk of inverted yield curves in the US and whether they portend a recession or a stock market crash. But, I wonder whether we need to watch the yield curve as much as exuberance in stocks themselves?US yield curve inversionCurrently about 3/5ths of the US... Show More

Macro
Sam Ferraro

There has been a material slowdown in China’s growth rate in recent years which in part is due to regulatory upheaval in the shadow banking sector. Here we offer an update on the fine balance achieved to date by Chinese authorities between boosting the resilience of the financial sector by... Show More

Macro
Clime Asset Management

The minority of Australian TV viewers that chose the Budget Address rather than tuning in to Married at First Sight were still entertained by coverage that combined poor quality acting with choreographed hugs. Whether this is a government that has decided to leave is unclear. They seem to want... Show More

Macro
Crestone Wealth Management

On 2 April 2019, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg delivered Australia’s federal budget for 2019-20. Coming ahead of a likely May federal election, the budget lays the foundation for the government’s re-election campaign, and highlights the Coalition’s economic management with the first budget-year surplus in over a decade. The budget also promises... Show More

Macro
Andrew Macken

Obviously in the near term, week-to-week, month-to-month it’s impossible to predict currencies, but over any medium-term period – you can at least, in our view, make some informed judgments around what the shape of the probability distribution of possible outcomes looks like. Show More

Macro
Sean Callow

The US dollar was stronger against almost all major currencies this week. This was not so much due to positive news on the US economy but instead in response to negative developments elsewhere. The euro for instance tumbled on Germany’s very weak manufacturing survey for March. Show More

Macro
Nick Grove

A combination of better-than-expected US growth, a ramping up in quantitative tightening in the US, and a massive liquidity injection in China have seen Wilson Asset Management Chairman and Chief Investment Officer, Geoff Wilson, alter his market outlook from being “ultra” to only “mildly” bearish. Show More

Macro
Crestone Wealth Management

At Crestone’s most recent investment forum, we asked panellists (Jacob Mitchell, Chief Investment Officer at Antipodes Partners, Brett Gillespie, Head of Global Macro at Ellerston Capital, Nathan Parkin, Investment Director at Ethical Partners Funds Management, Thomas Vester, Chief Investment Officer at LGM Investments, Vimal Gor, Head of Bond, Income and... Show More