Plato's Dr David Allen on using Jeff Bezos' advice for finding the winners of the future
At Livewire Live 2025, Dr David Allen shared the sector he sees as a big winner in 10 years time, and the stock he's backing to benefit.
This panel was filmed on 9 September 2025.
Predicting the future is no small task, especially in the increasingly fast-moving world we find ourselves in. Trying to find the investments that will flourish off the back of that prediction is harder still.
Plato's Dr David Allen, speaking on a panel at Livewire Live 2025, says it's about taking a different perspective.
He was reminded of an old Jeff Bezos talk around how we try to think about what the future will look like in terms of what will change when that might be the wrong approach.
"He actually turned everything on its head," said Allen. "He said 'okay, actually predicting technological advances, pharmaceutical advances is so challenging. By definition it's blue sky."
"Instead, what are the things that aren't going to change?' And for him, in the case of Amazon, it's obvious in 10 years time, it's impossible to imagine a world where people won't want cheap goods, quick delivery, and massive range."
That line of thinking is how Dr Allen is framing his own outlook on the future.
"The best way to predict the future is to look for the constants."
And that led him towards a current trend that is likely to still be a big part of the conversation in a decade's time.
"I'm not usually in the habit of quoting communists, but Lenin has this famous quote where he says that there are decades when nothing happens, and there are days when decades happen. And I think that's what's happened in terms of the European defence space for the first time since the Second World War."
In 10 years, the ramp up in European defence spending is unlikely to have abated, given the ongoing geopolitical tensions and disturbances to the established western order.
As Dr Allen says, this is likely to be a long-term opportunity for investors.
"Europeans are massively stepping up in terms of their defensive spend going from perennially less than their 2% NATO obligations to three and a half, even 5%. And that's not going to go away depending on who's in the White House. That's a 10-year trend, and I think there's going to be some real value creation on the back of that thing."
The stock to benefit
Rheinmetall AG (ETR: RHM), a German automotive and arms manufacturer that was founded in the 19th century, is a clear beneficiary of increased defence spending in Europe.
"They're a company that are the bedrock of Europe's land defence systems. So in terms of ammunition, tanks, air defence, it's really all about Rheinmetall," says Allen.
"[Europe] really needs to pull up their socks and invest in their own domestic reliable capability. And that just doesn't exist without this company."
If Europe is to be committed to creating more of an equilibrium in defence spending, it's looking at at least 10 years of dedicated investment.
"The European defensive industry is about a third to maybe 40% the size of the US, and yet the population of Europe is 540 million versus the US at 340. It is so undersized and it needs a whole decade of intensive spend," says Allen.
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Tom is a Content Editor at Livewire Markets, having worked as a writer and editor for 10 years, specialising in investing and personal finance.
He has previously worked at Finder, FourFourTwo and Man Of Many covering everything from film to football.
He has a Masters in Media Production and a Bachelor's in Journalism.
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Tom is a Content Editor at Livewire Markets, having worked as a writer and editor for 10 years, specialising in investing and personal finance. He has previously worked at Finder, FourFourTwo and Man Of Many covering everything from film to...
Expertise
Tom is a Content Editor at Livewire Markets, having worked as a writer and editor for 10 years, specialising in investing and personal finance. He has previously worked at Finder, FourFourTwo and Man Of Many covering everything from film to...
Expertise
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