The Baltic Dry index is at its lowest levels since 2016 and US inventory levels have spiked. German industrial production has had back to back ugly months. One developer’s Melbourne housing lot settlement default rate is running at 20-25%. US subprime auto arrears are getting ugly but this cycle’s auto... Show More
This week’s guest on the podcast is Jeff Cole, Founder and Director of The Center for the Digital Future, and a member of the investment committee for the E&P Global Disruption Fund. His work has been at the core of the media industry over the past three decades. He founded... Show More
Global leading indicators are close to signalling a recession. After a 40 day issuance shutdown, the US high yield bond market came roaring back in January. Greece has issued €2.5 billion of 5 year bonds at a 3.60% yield. Show More
After six weeks of heavy outflows from leveraged loan funds, US loans are having a minor pullback with margins and upfront discounts spiking higher. Global debt has hit $184 trillion. US bond managers track themselves against with an index with a AA+ average rating when they have a BBB average... Show More
Private equity has added zero alpha over the S&P 500 over the last decade. Top quartile private equity funds have very low persistence in their performance. October was the worst month for hedge funds in 7 years; a wave of redemptions is likely to lie ahead. A prominent venture capital... Show More
Rising interest rates, higher oil prices and a stronger dollar are a recipe for lower US earnings. Margin pressures are starting to show up in US industrials. 83% of US IPOs in 2018 are unprofitable companies, higher than the level in the tech bubble. US investors are at their lowest... Show More
“Creativity is at the heart of everything we do” - hear Mike Connaghan CEO of WPP AUNZ (ASX Code : WPP) talk about the history of the company , the changing landscape of media, technological trends , as well as some words of advice for entrepreneurs. WPP AUNZ has over... Show More
Seth Klarman’s 20 lessons from the financial crisis. Jim Grant’s 10 lessons on markets. 15 bullish investment assumptions you should be questioning. It’s time to switch from sexy to boring investments. Howard Marks warns on private debt and the aggressive lending environment. Goldman Sachs’s bull and bear indicator is at... Show More
Global trade is slowing, commodity prices are falling and global liquidity is drying up, pointing to weak GDP growth ahead. S&P 500 earnings growth estimates are well above normal and closing in on the tech bubble peak. The longest bull run ever continues with stretched valuations. Stocks in more indices... Show More
Leveraged loans increasingly have no subordinated debt below them, pushing up the likelihood of principal loss. Private equity is looking very late cycle with the growth in sponsor to sponsor and fund to fund transactions concerning. S&P 500 profit margins are at a record high led by the real estate... Show More
How a one-man investigative operation exposes dodgy American companies. A US start-up gives house buyers a down payment in return for 1-3 years of Airbnb bedroom rentals. 15 reasons and 6 benefits from hiding your wealth. If you are starting out or just want a reminder, here’s 36 obvious truths... Show More
In this short video we discuss WPP’s Full year results which included a 19% increase in pre-tax profit, improving margins and reduced debt levels which have been supported improving cashflows, Broader strategy in positioning itself to navigate a highly disrupted communications landscape, and earnings outlook for the year ahead and... Show More
One of our largest holdings in the TBF Small Cap Value Growth Fund is a company with a market cap of $170M that reported a profit of $27M in CY2016 and paid a dividend of $18M. The business does not have a lot of debt on the balance sheet and... Show More
AT&T (T.US), America’s largest telecoms group by market value, announced on the weekend that it would pay US$107.50 a share to acquire Time Warner (TWX.US), the owner of CNN and HBO, which produces shows such as Game of Thrones and Veep, and Warner Brothers, Hollywood’s largest film and television studio. However,... Show More
Swift's debut up ~ 56% in two days has been strong, but the question we want to task: "Is there more behind it?" The sector as a whole (TV2, ONE, XTV) has recently been re-rated significantly, but more importantly, SW1 is a key standout vs. its peers, trading at ~... Show More
The level of short interest (as % of shares on issue) in the ASX 200 hit a 5yr high in mid-Feb at 2.4% of issued capital (Australia only introduced short position reporting after the GFC). At this point the ASX 200 hit a 2yr low and started to rally, led... Show More
Valuation is a key factor for stock selection within our Australian portfolios. Given this value bias, our funds were not significantly exposed to the growth stocks that suffered from a momentum reversal seen in February. The fund recently took the opportunity to increase exposure to selected resource companies, given these... Show More
It’s been a short and a quiet week on the ASX, there’s not been a lot of new data out, and the ASX has ambled lower without any obvious motivation. Globally, Brussels (the home of the EU) was at the centre of attention this week, with fears of a ‘Brexit’... Show More
Aussie market started negative and then moved further negative as China came online to finish in the red. The markets are seeing exhausted buyers and excited sellers. Aussie market has been trading sideways for more than two weeks and looks to be rolling over on low turnover. We have two... Show More
Alex Leyland, Portfolio Manager at Leyland Asset Management, sees value in a number of ASX sectors at the moment, but one unloved old sector has yet to have been bid up following important changes. “The media reach rule will be scrapped. There is no doubt in my mind about that.... Show More