Buy Hold Sell: 3 ASX names set to benefit from rate cuts, hot property

There’s something stirring in the ASX property sector.

With interest rates finally trending lower, the landscape for real estate investment is beginning to shift. Cheaper financing, improving asset valuations, and a potential tailwind for yield-focused investors all mean that property stocks are starting to look a lot more compelling.

While they’ve been out of favour in recent times, could we now be witnessing the early signs of a comeback?

In this episode of Buy Hold Sell, we’re diving into the world of listed property - from retail to residential, industrial to office - to uncover where the best opportunities might lie.

To help make sense of it all, host Chris Conway is joined by two top investors who’ve seen more cycles than most: Matt Williams from Airlie Funds Management and David Wilson from First Sentier Investors.

Together, they run the ruler over three ASX-listed property stocks and discuss the macro forces driving the sector. 

For good measure, Matt and David also name a property play (or two) they like right now.

Please note this episode was filmed on 30 July 2025.

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Edited Transcript

Chris Conway: Hello and welcome to Livewire’s Buy Hold Sell. My name is Chris Conway. With interest rates coming down, property stocks are looking increasingly appealing. So today we're going to be running the ruler over the ASX property sector. To help me do that, I'm joined by David Wilson from First Sentier Investors and Matt Williams from Airlie Funds Management. Gents, welcome to Buy Hold Sell.

Matt Williams: Thanks Chris.

David Wilson: Thanks Chris.

Assessment of the sector

Chris Conway: All right, before we get to the stocks, the property sector has had a tough time of things in recent years, particularly certain segments like office. So Matt, I just wanted to get your assessment of the space and any trends that you might be seeing now.

Matt Williams: Look, I think office has bottomed, maybe famous last words, but things are looking better in terms of valuations that we're seeing coming through. But I think incentives are the big bugbear of the industry. They're still paying, the landlords are still having to pay a lot of incentives. So even though we may have bottomed, I don't think it's party time in the sector, but you can feel comfortable that things are looking up in office.

Chris Conway: Yeah. David, anything to add there in terms of office or anything else in the space?

David Wilson: We still think office may struggle for a while because of the point that Matt raises around incentives. They're very expensive at the moment and so they're really hitting returns. So we think it may take a while. We probably see the better sector is actually retail. You're still running a little bit of economic risk, but vacancy rates are low so rents should improve and there's not a lot of supply coming on over the next three or four years. So, it's probably a bit better space. And in between the two is probably industrial where we think it's sort of okay. Vacancy rates are probably increasing a bit. So, if I had to rank them I'd go retail, industrial, and still office at the bottom.

Goodman Group (ASX: GMG)

Chris Conway: There you go. All right, let's get into some stocks. First up we're going to talk about Goodman Group. It had a bit of a wobble earlier in the year, at least in terms of the share price off the back of a capital raise. David, buy, hold or sell for you?

David Wilson (BUY): For us it's a buy, Chris, because of that capital raise. It means it's got its balance sheet in place, so it's pre-funded its growth, it's set itself up for the growth that we think is there in data centres. That's 50% of the pipeline for Goodman's. So, with that balance sheet in place, the growth in place, you're going to be talking around 10% EPS growth over the next little while. We think they're in a good place. So for us it's a buy.

Chris Conway: Matt, it is flat over the last year. Dead flat when I checked today. Buy, hold or sell for you.

Matt Williams (BUY): Yeah, that little wobble provided a very good opportunity. It's a buy for us. It's in the portfolio. To David's point, the setup looks pretty good with the balance sheet and the way it is. I think the result that's going to come up is going to be crucial. We're going to see signposts on how they're executing on their pipeline and also maybe some information around capital partners to come on in. The setup looks good. It's one of the rare companies in the ASX you can get exposure to the theme that's obviously prevalent, particularly in the US, so I think it makes a good spot in a portfolio.

Chris Conway: There you have it ladies and gentlemen, we're off to a hot start with a double buy on Goodman Group.

Mirvac Group (ASX: MGR)

Next up we're going to talk about Mirvac. Matt, again, I'll come to you. It dabbles in the whole spectrum of real estate. So resi, retail and office. Buy, hold, sell for you?

Matt Williams (HOLD): It's not held by us, but I'll say it's a hold overall because I think Campbell Hannon has done a good job so far in reshaping the business away from development and the business has some good assets, has some good office assets. But look, it's a difficult part of the market in terms of its MPC business. They do have a good land lease business, their joint venture with Pacific Equity Partners, their Serenitas land lease business. That's future upside I think as they build that out, but putting it all together with the current valuation, it's a hold.

Chris Conway: David, it has had a pretty good year to date, up 21% since January, so it's blitzed the market. Buy, hold or sell for you?

David Wilson (SELL): Well Chris, I actually agree with a lot of what Matt said, but I disagree with the recommendation. I'll have it as a sell. I think this is a company, and I agree that Campbell has done a great job with the business, but it's a company that continues to struggle to drive EPS growth. Basically it's been flat over the last five to 10 years and so therefore with what valuation is at the moment, I think that's tough for a stock that's not really growing EPS. I think also they do have high quality assets but they have a high exposure to office as well. So for us, yeah, it's a sell.

Matt Williams: You could say the same… Stockland has struggled to grow EPS over exactly the same period. They've got the same kind of community business. Whether this new management team at Stockland will be able to change that with Campbell at Mirvac, it'll be interesting.

Chris Conway: No doubt. Good stuff. All right, next up we're going to talk about Pexa. So digital property exchange and settlements. It's had a relatively tough journey since it first listed in 2021. David, buy, hold or sell for you?

Pexa Group (ASX: PXA)

David Wilson (HOLD): For us Chris, it's a hold and it's had a bounce just recently. What you've got, it's a funny blend of businesses. You've got the Australian business, which is really an infrastructure style business and it's actually a very, very consistent earner, business is very high market share, very high margins. So it's in a good place. Where the upside is for the stock is actually what it can do in the UK. It recently announced the development, if you like, of a contract with NatWest and so that can drive. If they continue to drive into the UK, then you can see the share price, it'll gain from here. But we feel as though they need to generate a little bit more track record in the UK for us to say it's a buy, but it's a hold and it's a high-quality hold for us.

Chris Conway: Matt, up 16% over the past year, but a lot of that has come recently as David was saying. So buy, hold or sell for you?

Matt Williams (SELL): Oh look, just to be a bit different, I'll say sell. Because of this bounce, I think the UK is definitely unproven, but a good point that they've made some progress there. I look at the existing Australian business and look, it's great. It's a monopoly, and so what's not to like? Well, what's not to like is that they don't have pricing power. You really want a monopoly with a bit of pricing power. Otherwise, how do they use that monopoly? So, I think REA for the exposure to the big Aussie property market, REA is a much better bet because they have pricing power and as we know, are not afraid to use it. After this recent bounce, Pexa, take profits here in the short term.

David Wilson: I actually agree with Matt on that is that we actually prefer REA.

Matt Williams: Yeah.

Chris Conway: Even at these valuations? Isn't it on 50 times or something like that?

Matt Williams: Well you can get it cheaper through News Corp and that's where we've played it. Depends on how you cut News Corp, but we feel you're buying it at a discount in the News Corp structure.

Chris Conway: David?

David Wilson: REA is the stock we love to cite as where market often underestimates growth. And REA, I can remember back in 2013, everyone was saying the PE multiple on REA was way too high. I'll just remind people, save them looking it up. In 2013, the REA share price was 17 bucks. As of today, I think it's 235 bucks.

Chris Conway: There you go. And still expensive on traditional metrics, right?

David Wilson: That's right, but it has pricing power. I think Pexa, they have a CPI link and so there's no sort of discounting but they don't price up the way REA does. So I actually prefer REA to Pexa, but we think Pexa's in a reasonable place.

Chris Conway: Well the audience has got a little bonus with that REA group. We didn't have it on the run sheet, but there you go.

Matt Williams: I'm surprised he didn't bring out 1993. I mean, he's been around since, I don't know, I was still at school when he joined the market.

David Wilson: That's when I was doing teachings for Matt when I was at JP Morgan.

Guest picks

Chris Conway: Goodness me. There you go. There's a history lesson as well. How good are we going here? All right, let's focus on some stocks that you do like gentlemen. Matt, I'm going to give you the floor first. What are you liking in this property sector?

Waypoint REIT (ASX: WPR) and Region Group (ASX: RGN)

Matt Williams: I'm going to go with two really boring kind of rent collectors, and that is Waypoint REIT who own about 400 petrol stations around Australia, and Region Group who own a lot of neighbourhood shopping centres, generally anchored by Woolworths. And look, these are really quality businesses. They're going to pay you over 6% in a dividend. And you look to the private market where private assets in both petrol stations and these little neighbourhood shopping centres are transacting. They're generally at tighter cap rates than what these two things can be bought at. So look, they're both bite-sized sort of companies. I'm not saying they will get bought out, but it wouldn't surprise me if they're attractive to a big capital player who wants to just put these things away over the long term. So I quite like these businesses. They're not going to make you rich quickly, obviously, but 6% plus a little bit of capital growth each year, it's okay.

Chris Conway: Yeah. Nice one. David, what have you got for us in the property sector?

Charter Hall (ASX: CHC)

David Wilson: For us, Chris, it's Charter Hall. We think, again, David Harrison's done a great job over a long period of time. Stocks on a PE of 20, but it's probably going to get high single digit, maybe even early double-digit EPS growth. FUM’s probably going to grow from $70 billion to $100 billion towards the end of the decade. So we think it delivers nice growth. It's got a nicely diversified business as well. So for us, it's Charter Hall.

Chris Conway: There you go. Some great ideas in the ASX property sector. If you enjoyed that episode of Buy Hold Sell, make sure to give it a like and don't forget to follow our YouTube channel. We're adding lots of great content every single week.