politics

Education
Jonathan Rochford

Stock buybacks are better at getting cash to executives than shareholders. Hedge fund Element Capital has delivered net annual returns of 21% since 2005. A British hedge fund has returned $300 million to Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund. Brookfield is buying Oaktree Capital – is Howard Marks signalling the top... Show More

Jonathan Rochford

The Baltic Dry index is at its lowest levels since 2016 and US inventory levels have spiked. German industrial production has had back to back ugly months. One developer’s Melbourne housing lot settlement default rate is running at 20-25%. US subprime auto arrears are getting ugly but this cycle’s auto... Show More

Jonathan Rochford

After six weeks of heavy outflows from leveraged loan funds, US loans are having a minor pullback with margins and upfront discounts spiking higher. Global debt has hit $184 trillion. US bond managers track themselves against with an index with a AA+ average rating when they have a BBB average... Show More

Jonathan Rochford

Private equity has added zero alpha over the S&P 500 over the last decade. Top quartile private equity funds have very low persistence in their performance. October was the worst month for hedge funds in 7 years; a wave of redemptions is likely to lie ahead. A prominent venture capital... Show More

Jonathan Rochford

Rising interest rates, higher oil prices and a stronger dollar are a recipe for lower US earnings. Margin pressures are starting to show up in US industrials. 83% of US IPOs in 2018 are unprofitable companies, higher than the level in the tech bubble. US investors are at their lowest... Show More

Christopher Joye

Today I review research that shows if Labor eliminates negative gearing and increases capital gains tax by 50%, national house prices could fall 9-12% on top of the current declines; parse new analysis from CoreLogic highlighting a spike in the share of apartment owners realising losses when they sell their... Show More

Buy Hold Sell
Buy Hold Sell

Volatility and wild swings in company share prices were a feature of the August 2018 reporting period. For example, Bellamy’s shares immediately fell 8% on the result only to rally and end the day 6% higher. According to Charlie Aitken, it’s a symptom of large amounts of short-term money sloshing... Show More

Jonathan Rochford

Global trade is slowing, commodity prices are falling and global liquidity is drying up, pointing to weak GDP growth ahead. S&P 500 earnings growth estimates are well above normal and closing in on the tech bubble peak. The longest bull run ever continues with stretched valuations. Stocks in more indices... Show More

Shane Oliver

Yet another PM in Australia, with Scott Morrison defeating Peter Dutton who had brought on a challenge to replace Malcolm Turnbull. All of the last four elected PMs have now been deposed by their own party. This is the 6th PM this decade, so we have now caught up with... Show More

Jonathan Rochford

Leveraged loans increasingly have no subordinated debt below them, pushing up the likelihood of principal loss. Private equity is looking very late cycle with the growth in sponsor to sponsor and fund to fund transactions concerning. S&P 500 profit margins are at a record high led by the real estate... Show More

Jonathan Rochford

US CLO issuance is at record pace but credit quality is slipping. US high yield bond covenants are at their worst since records began in 2011, even B and CCC rated bond covenants are weak, but in Europe high yield bond buyers are starting to push back on terms. US... Show More

Jonathan Rochford

Wells Fargo copped a $1 billion fine for selling dodgy insurance and is keeping bad company in subprime lending. Barclay’s CEO got off with just a fine for trying to unmask a whistleblower. CBA charges fees to customers for over a decade after they died. Deutsche Bank paid $35 billion... Show More

Mugunthan Siva

India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, was sworn in as India’s new Prime Minister in 2014 to much hype as no party had won by such a margin in 30 years. This was also monumental given his opposition, Congress party’s “Gandhi” domination that has ruled India for 49 of the past... Show More

David Sokulsky

The political environment is arguably more important now for investors than it has been for many years. Trump’s presidential victory in the US, the rise of ‘populism’ in Europe, and potentially more regulation for domestic energy, healthcare and banking sectors all have the potential to impact markets. Show More