politics

Education
Jonathan Rochford

Global trade and air freight volumes have gone negative. New York City has a glut of luxury apartments for sale. Ten year returns look fantastic now that the losses of 2007-2009 have washed out. As equities become more expensive, insurance against falls is getting cheaper. Smaller Japanese banks are looking... Show More

Macro
Mugunthan Siva

Incumbent Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi, swept to a significant victory as the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) captured an estimated 357 seats of the 543 seat Lower House (Lok Sabha). Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) captured a majority on its own right (303 seats up from 282 in 2014). Over... Show More

Education
Jonathan Rochford

Stock buybacks are better at getting cash to executives than shareholders. Hedge fund Element Capital has delivered net annual returns of 21% since 2005. A British hedge fund has returned $300 million to Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund. Brookfield is buying Oaktree Capital – is Howard Marks signalling the top... Show More

Jonathan Rochford

The Baltic Dry index is at its lowest levels since 2016 and US inventory levels have spiked. German industrial production has had back to back ugly months. One developer’s Melbourne housing lot settlement default rate is running at 20-25%. US subprime auto arrears are getting ugly but this cycle’s auto... Show More

Jonathan Rochford

After six weeks of heavy outflows from leveraged loan funds, US loans are having a minor pullback with margins and upfront discounts spiking higher. Global debt has hit $184 trillion. US bond managers track themselves against with an index with a AA+ average rating when they have a BBB average... Show More

Jonathan Rochford

Private equity has added zero alpha over the S&P 500 over the last decade. Top quartile private equity funds have very low persistence in their performance. October was the worst month for hedge funds in 7 years; a wave of redemptions is likely to lie ahead. A prominent venture capital... Show More

Jonathan Rochford

Rising interest rates, higher oil prices and a stronger dollar are a recipe for lower US earnings. Margin pressures are starting to show up in US industrials. 83% of US IPOs in 2018 are unprofitable companies, higher than the level in the tech bubble. US investors are at their lowest... Show More

Christopher Joye

Today I review research that shows if Labor eliminates negative gearing and increases capital gains tax by 50%, national house prices could fall 9-12% on top of the current declines; parse new analysis from CoreLogic highlighting a spike in the share of apartment owners realising losses when they sell their... Show More