Media worth consuming – October 2025

Interesting and under the radar media on finance, economics, politics and society.
Jonathan Rochford

Narrow Road Capital

Top five articles

A podcast discussing Canada’s house price pullback, which began with conditions similar to Australia’s current position.

Quantitative easing has cost British taxpayers a fortune, leading to lower government spending and higher taxes.

The sharp improvement in child reading standards in Mississippi shows that phonics, teacher training and standardised testing deliver much better results than poorly targeted spending increases.

Australia needs a Bari Weiss to fix the bias at the ABC.

Employees of a bank in Gibraltar were encouraged to wear “Indian” dress to celebrate the Hindu holiday of Diwali, but some misunderstood and came dressed as Native Americans instead.

Finance

The US economy is expected to post Q3 GDP of around 3.9%, with weaker jobs data reflecting the migration shake-up. A second sub-prime auto lender bankruptcy and a surge in repossessions point to low-income Americans struggling. Luxury US hotels are performing well, while economy hotels are struggling. US margin debt has spiked again. Over the last two months, Russell 2000 companies with negative earnings have significantly outperformed those with positive earnings. The top 2% of global stocks have well above average P/E ratios, while the remaining 98% are trading close to average levels.

Bankrupt US auto lender Tricolor made loans considered worse than subprime, as the borrowers were often illegal immigrants without credit scores. An American start-up is offering credit cards backed by the borrower’s equity in their car. US corporate bonds are trading at their lowest credit spreads in 27 years. Bonds issued by Microsoft and Johnson & Johnson trade at lower yields than US treasuries. With credit spreads pushing ever lower, private credit is expanding into emerging markets. Game maker Electronic Arts has agreed to be acquired in what would be the largest ever leveraged buyout.

The silver market temporarily became disorderly after stocks ran out in India and London ahead of Diwali. China’s Belt and Road projects have proven to be a debt trap for many of the world’s poorest countries. S&P’s Chinese subsidiary has been instructed by the Chinese government to rectify its operations as part of a crackdown on inflated credit ratings.

Nvidia’s deals to lease its chips could indicate that chip demand is inflated. If the music stops for OpenAI, there will be a lot of collateral damage. AI start-ups accounted for 63% of venture capital investments over the past year, with their enormous valuations raising questions about how investors will ever realise their paper profits. The US is seeing a surge in the construction of high-tech factories, and it now has more than ten times the number of data centres of any other country. Uber could quickly become obsolete as self-driving cars are rolled out. A balanced article discusses how to invest amid the bubble-like conditions surrounding AI.

Politics & culture

Trump can’t decide whether he wants higher or lower beef prices. Ronald Reagan was a strong supporter of free trade, a fact that annoys Trump and his supporters. The new White House ballroom will stop guests at state dinners from sitting outside under tents and using portable toilets. During the US Government shutdown, members of Congress continue to be paid while many federal employees aren’t.

The Trump administration is trying to stop media outlets from reporting on military leaks - a particularly troubling move given the defence sector’s reputation for wasting taxpayer money. Is the Trump administration crossing a free speech line by investigating foundations controlled by George Soros for funding groups linked to terrorism and violence? James Comey claims he is the victim of selective prosecution - the same tactic he repeatedly used against Trump associates when he was head of the FBI. A Swiss man is set to spend ten days in jail after refusing to pay a fine for saying that skeletons are either male or female.

Democrats insist that Antifa doesn’t exist, but two members in Texas were arrested for attempted murder and terrorism offences. Florida has become an epicentre for Obamacare fraud. Canada’s economic and social failures resemble those of Victoria. A UN report blames cuts to welfare programs for the growth of the far right, even though welfare spending is increasing in developed nations.

To avoid US sanctions, China is buying Iranian oil and paying with infrastructure projects. Europe is considering forcing Chinese businesses to transfer battery and EV technology as part of its trade dispute. Paper mills are destroying the credibility of academic research, selling authorship on worthless papers to younger academics and falsely listing experienced academics as co-authors on papers they’ve never seen.

Economics & work

The 2025 quasi-Nobel Prize for Economics was shared among three men for their work on how creative destruction drives ongoing advances in prosperity. A United Nations organisation wants to impose a global tax on shipping – a highly unusual precedent if implemented.

Early disclosures from the Housing Australia Future Fund (HAFF) show that building houses with affordable rents will cost taxpayers far more than expected. Several structural forces suggest Australia will continue to face housing affordability and inflation problems. APRA doesn’t want banks to ramp up high LVR residential lending, but the federal government does - meaning taxpayers will likely foot the bill when the next recession hits.

A study of American migration found that high-wage migration delivers substantial benefits, while low-skilled migration is very costly. The Australian government’s high migration levels help it to balance the federal budget but leave the states with an enormous infrastructure bill. Less than 5% of migrants to Australia work in construction, contributing to a major housing shortfall. 71% of Australians want lower migration to allow housing and infrastructure to catch up, but the Australian government refuses to listen.

Of the G7 nations, only Germany and Canada don’t have excessive government debt. The ECB is outperforming the Federal Reserve in unwinding its QE program. If France, Germany and Italy want to be as wealthy as Switzerland, they should start by reducing government and lowering taxes. French voters’ demands for pensions from age 60 are sending the country broke. Germany, Luxembourg and Australia have the highest minimum wages in the world. Sydney and Melbourne top global rankings for most expensive cities to buy a beer.

US inflation remains broad-based, with around 60% of components at or above 3%. Given the US budget deficit, inflation around 2% in the long term seems unlikely. The US government shutdown presents an opportunity to address the unsustainability of US debt and deficits. Debasement trades against the US dollar and Treasuries aren’t working yet, but if high debt and deficits continue, they eventually might. Argentina’s citizens are effectively dollarizing, so Milei should follow through on his campaign promise to scrap the peso. Argentina has a long way to go to rectify the mess from decades of awful politics and economic policies.

Modern socialism is focused on taking the output from production rather than government controlling the means of production. Five cartoons that mock Socialism’s history of bringing poverty and a series of memes about communism. A satirical list of ten ways to close the gender pay gap.

Miscellaneous

As wind and solar push beyond the current 33% of power generation in Australia, the cost of power to consumers and grid stability risks will increase. Scientists have developed a cheaper method to extract rare earths from old electronic equipment. With the help of AI and social media, humans are losing the ability to think critically. Gambling and gamification are major driving forces behind today’s stock market and the American economy. A current NBA player, a coach, and hundreds of Turkish soccer referees have been caught in gambling scandals.

The top tip for a healthy gut is to eat a variety of fibre-rich foods, including beans, peas, lentils, bananas, apples, pears, and whole grains such as barley, brown rice and oats. A 58-year-old man is playing Division III college football, pursuing a long-held dream after never attending college when he was younger.  

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This article has been prepared for educational purposes and is in no way meant to be a substitute for professional and tailored financial advice. It contains information derived and sourced from a broad list of third parties and has been prepared on the basis that this third party information is accurate. This article expresses the views of the author at a point in time, and such views may change in the future with no obligation on Narrow Road Capital or the author to publicly update these views. Narrow Road Capital advises on and invests in a wide range of securities, including securities linked to the performance of various companies and financial institutions.

Jonathan Rochford
Portfolio Manager
Narrow Road Capital

Narrow Road Capital is a credit manager with a track record of higher returns and lower fees on Australian credit investments. Clients include institutions, not for profits and family offices.

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