economics

Media Worth Consuming - July 2018

Jonathan Rochford

Leveraged loans increasingly have no subordinated debt below them, pushing up the likelihood of principal loss. Private equity is looking very late cycle with the growth in sponsor to sponsor and fund to fund transactions concerning. S&P 500 profit margins are at a record high led by the real estate... Show More

politics economics media finance culture

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Handling the downside risk from Trump's tariffs

Scott Shuttleworth

Over the past few weeks, you may have noticed President Trump’s rhetoric has centred around trade and resulted in the escalation of tensions between the US and other economic powers of the world. Many investors are wondering what downside risk they might be exposed to and whether a recession is... Show More

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Media Worth Consuming - June 2018

Jonathan Rochford

US CLO issuance is at record pace but credit quality is slipping. US high yield bond covenants are at their worst since records began in 2011, even B and CCC rated bond covenants are weak, but in Europe high yield bond buyers are starting to push back on terms. US... Show More

equities credit politics markets economics finance

Media Worth Consuming – April 2018

Jonathan Rochford

Wells Fargo copped a $1 billion fine for selling dodgy insurance and is keeping bad company in subprime lending. Barclay’s CEO got off with just a fine for trying to unmask a whistleblower. CBA charges fees to customers for over a decade after they died. Deutsche Bank paid $35 billion... Show More

The Economics of Population Growth

Jonathan Rochford

The elephant in the room for Australia’s Federal Parliament has finally been called out. Australia’s rapid population growth is arguably as important an issue as balancing the budget and the environment. Yet almost no one has dared to mention it since Kevin Rudd talked of a “big Australia” in 2009.... Show More

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Media Worth Consuming – March 2018

Jonathan Rochford

Some investors are asking if global growth is too strong yet State Street sees global investor confidence soaring. There are signs of economic stress in the US, as well as global leading indicators pointing to a negative outlook. Show More

economics government finance society

Australia: A canary in the coal mine

Chris Watling

Structurally, Australia’s growth model has been deteriorating for most of the past two decades and is now arguably one of the poorer examples in the developed world. In the years of the last commodity bull cycle, instead of saving in its ‘times of plenty’, Australia funded a large consumption and... Show More

Watling: Zombies, Canaries and Cheap Money

Livewire Exclusive

In January, market commentary was almost universally bullish. Ray Dalio, the billionaire US Hedge Fund Manager told the audience at the World Economic Forum in Davos that those holding cash were “going to feel pretty stupid.” One of the few voices urging caution was that of Chris Watling, CEO and... Show More

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Waiting for wages growth

Cameron Rae

Higher wages growth in the United States seems to have caused the sell-off and subsequent sharp lift in volatility in global bond and share markets. Annual growth in in US average hourly earnings accelerated to 2.9% y-o-y moving in to territory that has presaged higher inflation in the past and... Show More

The Rules of Investing: A housing correction, or a crash?

Livewire Exclusive

In the first podcast for 2018, Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital sits down with Livewire Editor, Patrick Poke. The topic at hand is Australia: the share market, the economy, wages, and of course, house prices. They discuss UBS's report late last year... Show More

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Spring carnival form guide: Political and economic edition...

Stephen Koukoulas

The spring carnival is in full swing and it’s time to turn on the lights and examine the political and economic form guide. My tip is "Uncertainty", which seems to have the best track record in politics and economics. So here’s my take on the rest of the runners… Show More

politics housing economics spring carnival

High Returns, Low Volatility – What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Jonathan Rochford

Economic news was strong in October, led by US Q3 GDP coming at an annualised rate of 3.0%. Quarterly earnings and sales for S&P 500 companies are beating estimates by more than usual. One standout was bellwether stock Caterpillar, which after four years of declining revenue has seen sales up... Show More

debt equities credit China economics finance

Media Worth Consuming - October 2017

Jonathan Rochford

Here's this month's interesting and informative media on economics, finance, government and society. Show More

politics economics environment finance culture

What's hurting your hip pocket?

Livewire Exclusive

With all the focus on the headline CPI each quarter, it’s easy to forget that it’s made up of a ‘basket’ of good and services. In this helpful infographic, we’ve plotted out the different data series from the ABS over the last 20 years. How’s your wallet holding up? Show More

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BIS Nails the State of Global Corporate Debt

Jonathan Rochford

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) quarterly report is always worth the read. Whilst it is academic in style and length, it consistently raises material that matters. Taken from the September report, the graphic below highlights the big issues for global corporate debt. The rest of this short article explains... Show More

debt bis economics finance

Media Worth Consuming - September 2017

Jonathan Rochford

How a one-man investigative operation exposes dodgy American companies. A US start-up gives house buyers a down payment in return for 1-3 years of Airbnb bedroom rentals. 15 reasons and 6 benefits from hiding your wealth. If you are starting out or just want a reminder, here’s 36 obvious truths... Show More

politics economics media finance society

Key takeaways from the brightest minds in the business

Crestone Wealth Management

Some of the brightest economic and investment minds in the business debated the big macro-economic issues at our latest Crestone Investment Forum. Read on for insights from Jacob Mitchell, Brett Gillespie, Vimal Gor, Dr Phillipp Hofflin, Robert Mead, Dr Michael McCorry, and Stephen Halmarick. Some of the key takeaways are... Show More

2 factors weighing on the Australian dollar

Alex Joiner

US ten-year bond yields have fallen approximately 25bp since March and are at around 2.1%. Australian government bond yields have likewise fallen by around 60bp to 2.4%, after briefly looking to breach 3% back in February. However, what is more notable is the narrowing of the spread between the two,... Show More

fed inflation australian dollar rba dollar economics us rates macro

May Market Commentary

Jonathan Rochford

Another month of small gains in equities and credit, whilst commodities continued to fall back. Equities were up in Japan (2.4%), China (1.5%) and the US (1.2%) with Europe pretty much flat (-0.1%). Australian equities (-3.4%) were the standout loser. High yield and investment grade credit in the US and... Show More

debt credit China economics finance

March Commentary: Markets Take a Breather After “Yuge” Gains

Jonathan Rochford

The Trump rally took a breather in March with risk assets mixed. Equities were flat in the US and China, rose in Europe (5.5%) and Australia (2.7%) and fell in Japan (-1.1%). US investment grade and high yield credit gave up a small portion of the recent gains. Commodities mostly... Show More

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