Private equity has added zero alpha over the S&P 500 over the last decade. Top quartile private equity funds have very low persistence in their performance. October was the worst month for hedge funds in 7 years; a wave of redemptions is likely to lie ahead. A prominent venture capital... Show More
Rising interest rates, higher oil prices and a stronger dollar are a recipe for lower US earnings. Margin pressures are starting to show up in US industrials. 83% of US IPOs in 2018 are unprofitable companies, higher than the level in the tech bubble. US investors are at their lowest... Show More
The debate over whether a value or a growth style produces better long term investment returns continues, with staunch advocates on both sides. Certain high profile investors such as Warren Buffett continue to champion the Benjamin Graham school of value investing while, in contrast, recent BAML fund managers’ surveys have... Show More
Seth Klarman’s 20 lessons from the financial crisis. Jim Grant’s 10 lessons on markets. 15 bullish investment assumptions you should be questioning. It’s time to switch from sexy to boring investments. Howard Marks warns on private debt and the aggressive lending environment. Goldman Sachs’s bull and bear indicator is at... Show More
Global trade is slowing, commodity prices are falling and global liquidity is drying up, pointing to weak GDP growth ahead. S&P 500 earnings growth estimates are well above normal and closing in on the tech bubble peak. The longest bull run ever continues with stretched valuations. Stocks in more indices... Show More
Leveraged loans increasingly have no subordinated debt below them, pushing up the likelihood of principal loss. Private equity is looking very late cycle with the growth in sponsor to sponsor and fund to fund transactions concerning. S&P 500 profit margins are at a record high led by the real estate... Show More
Over the past few weeks, you may have noticed President Trump’s rhetoric has centred around trade and resulted in the escalation of tensions between the US and other economic powers of the world. Many investors are wondering what downside risk they might be exposed to and whether a recession is... Show More
US CLO issuance is at record pace but credit quality is slipping. US high yield bond covenants are at their worst since records began in 2011, even B and CCC rated bond covenants are weak, but in Europe high yield bond buyers are starting to push back on terms. US... Show More
Wells Fargo copped a $1 billion fine for selling dodgy insurance and is keeping bad company in subprime lending. Barclay’s CEO got off with just a fine for trying to unmask a whistleblower. CBA charges fees to customers for over a decade after they died. Deutsche Bank paid $35 billion... Show More
The elephant in the room for Australia’s Federal Parliament has finally been called out. Australia’s rapid population growth is arguably as important an issue as balancing the budget and the environment. Yet almost no one has dared to mention it since Kevin Rudd talked of a “big Australia” in 2009.... Show More
Some investors are asking if global growth is too strong yet State Street sees global investor confidence soaring. There are signs of economic stress in the US, as well as global leading indicators pointing to a negative outlook. Show More
Structurally, Australia’s growth model has been deteriorating for most of the past two decades and is now arguably one of the poorer examples in the developed world. In the years of the last commodity bull cycle, instead of saving in its ‘times of plenty’, Australia funded a large consumption and... Show More
In January, market commentary was almost universally bullish. Ray Dalio, the billionaire US Hedge Fund Manager told the audience at the World Economic Forum in Davos that those holding cash were “going to feel pretty stupid.” One of the few voices urging caution was that of Chris Watling, CEO and... Show More
Higher wages growth in the United States seems to have caused the sell-off and subsequent sharp lift in volatility in global bond and share markets. Annual growth in in US average hourly earnings accelerated to 2.9% y-o-y moving in to territory that has presaged higher inflation in the past and... Show More
In the first podcast for 2018, Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital sits down with Livewire Editor, Patrick Poke. The topic at hand is Australia: the share market, the economy, wages, and of course, house prices. They discuss UBS's report late last year... Show More
The spring carnival is in full swing and it’s time to turn on the lights and examine the political and economic form guide. My tip is "Uncertainty", which seems to have the best track record in politics and economics. So here’s my take on the rest of the runners… Show More
Economic news was strong in October, led by US Q3 GDP coming at an annualised rate of 3.0%. Quarterly earnings and sales for S&P 500 companies are beating estimates by more than usual. One standout was bellwether stock Caterpillar, which after four years of declining revenue has seen sales up... Show More
Here's this month's interesting and informative media on economics, finance, government and society. Show More
With all the focus on the headline CPI each quarter, it’s easy to forget that it’s made up of a ‘basket’ of good and services. In this helpful infographic, we’ve plotted out the different data series from the ABS over the last 20 years. How’s your wallet holding up? Show More
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) quarterly report is always worth the read. Whilst it is academic in style and length, it consistently raises material that matters. Taken from the September report, the graphic below highlights the big issues for global corporate debt. The rest of this short article explains... Show More
