Australia: A canary in the coal mine

Chris Watling
Chris Watling Longview Economics

Structurally, Australia’s growth model has been deteriorating for most of the past two decades and is now arguably one of the poorer examples in the developed world. In the years of the last commodity bull cycle, instead of saving in its ‘times of plenty’, Australia funded a large consumption and... Show More

Watling: Zombies, Canaries and Cheap Money

Livewire Exclusive

In January, market commentary was almost universally bullish. Ray Dalio, the billionaire US Hedge Fund Manager told the audience at the World Economic Forum in Davos that those holding cash were “going to feel pretty stupid.” One of the few voices urging caution was that of Chris Watling, CEO and... Show More

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Waiting for wages growth

Cameron Rae
Cameron Rae Laminar Capital & Easterly Asset Management

Higher wages growth in the United States seems to have caused the sell-off and subsequent sharp lift in volatility in global bond and share markets. Annual growth in in US average hourly earnings accelerated to 2.9% y-o-y moving in to territory that has presaged higher inflation in the past and... Show More

The Rules of Investing: A housing correction, or a crash?

Livewire Exclusive

In the first podcast for 2018, Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital sits down with Livewire Editor, Patrick Poke. The topic at hand is Australia: the share market, the economy, wages, and of course, house prices. They discuss UBS's report late last year... Show More

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Spring carnival form guide: Political and economic edition...

Stephen Koukoulas
Stephen Koukoulas Market Economics Pty Ltd

The spring carnival is in full swing and it’s time to turn on the lights and examine the political and economic form guide. My tip is "Uncertainty", which seems to have the best track record in politics and economics. So here’s my take on the rest of the runners… Show More

politics housing economics spring carnival

High Returns, Low Volatility – What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Jonathan Rochford
Jonathan Rochford Narrow Road Capital

Economic news was strong in October, led by US Q3 GDP coming at an annualised rate of 3.0%. Quarterly earnings and sales for S&P 500 companies are beating estimates by more than usual. One standout was bellwether stock Caterpillar, which after four years of declining revenue has seen sales up... Show More

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Media Worth Consuming - October 2017

Jonathan Rochford
Jonathan Rochford Narrow Road Capital

Here's this month's interesting and informative media on economics, finance, government and society. Show More

politics economics environment finance culture

What's hurting your hip pocket?

Livewire Exclusive

With all the focus on the headline CPI each quarter, it’s easy to forget that it’s made up of a ‘basket’ of good and services. In this helpful infographic, we’ve plotted out the different data series from the ABS over the last 20 years. How’s your wallet holding up? Show More

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BIS Nails the State of Global Corporate Debt

Jonathan Rochford
Jonathan Rochford Narrow Road Capital

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) quarterly report is always worth the read. Whilst it is academic in style and length, it consistently raises material that matters. Taken from the September report, the graphic below highlights the big issues for global corporate debt. The rest of this short article explains... Show More

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Media Worth Consuming - September 2017

Jonathan Rochford
Jonathan Rochford Narrow Road Capital

How a one-man investigative operation exposes dodgy American companies. A US start-up gives house buyers a down payment in return for 1-3 years of Airbnb bedroom rentals. 15 reasons and 6 benefits from hiding your wealth. If you are starting out or just want a reminder, here’s 36 obvious truths... Show More

politics economics media finance society

Key takeaways from the brightest minds in the business

Crestone Wealth Management
Crestone Wealth Management A new conversation in wealth Management

Some of the brightest economic and investment minds in the business debated the big macro-economic issues at our latest Crestone Investment Forum. Read on for insights from Jacob Mitchell, Brett Gillespie, Vimal Gor, Dr Phillipp Hofflin, Robert Mead, Dr Michael McCorry, and Stephen Halmarick. Some of the key takeaways are... Show More

2 factors weighing on the Australian dollar

Alex Joiner
Alex Joiner IFM Investors

US ten-year bond yields have fallen approximately 25bp since March and are at around 2.1%. Australian government bond yields have likewise fallen by around 60bp to 2.4%, after briefly looking to breach 3% back in February. However, what is more notable is the narrowing of the spread between the two,... Show More

fed inflation australian dollar rba dollar economics us rates macro

May Market Commentary

Jonathan Rochford
Jonathan Rochford Narrow Road Capital

Another month of small gains in equities and credit, whilst commodities continued to fall back. Equities were up in Japan (2.4%), China (1.5%) and the US (1.2%) with Europe pretty much flat (-0.1%). Australian equities (-3.4%) were the standout loser. High yield and investment grade credit in the US and... Show More

debt credit China economics finance

March Commentary: Markets Take a Breather After “Yuge” Gains

Jonathan Rochford
Jonathan Rochford Narrow Road Capital

The Trump rally took a breather in March with risk assets mixed. Equities were flat in the US and China, rose in Europe (5.5%) and Australia (2.7%) and fell in Japan (-1.1%). US investment grade and high yield credit gave up a small portion of the recent gains. Commodities mostly... Show More

equities credit sentiment economics finance

Fed rate hike: What does it mean?

Craig James
Craig James CommSec

The US Federal Reserve has lifted the target federal funds range by 25 basis points to 0.75-1.00% as expected. Two more rate hikes are anticipated in 2017 and three in 2018. The US rates decision affects global interest rates, currencies and sharemarkets. So, what happened and what does it mean? Show More

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Highlights from OECD's Australia report

Alex Cowie
Alex Cowie Livewire Markets

While recent headlines have focused on the OECD’s passing comments on housing-debt risks in their recent 47-pager on Australia, the real meat and spuds in this great report is the analysis on, and recommendations for, Australia’s slipping productivity, innovation and inequality. We’ve pulled out some of the highlights and key... Show More

Australia property economics oecd macro risks

February Market Commentary: The Only Way is Up?

Jonathan Rochford
Jonathan Rochford Narrow Road Capital

February brought more gains for risk assets and safe haven assets. Equities rose in all major jurisdictions including the US (3.7%), Europe (2.8%), China (1.9%), Australia (1.6%) and Japan (0.4%). Credit made gains across high yield, emerging markets and investment grade. Commodities were mixed with iron ore (9.6%), gold (3.1%)... Show More

Stellar earnings results from Corporate Australia

Craig James
Craig James CommSec

There are still two days of the earnings season to go. Remarkably all but 8 of the 135 companies produced a profit for the six months to December. That is, around 94 per cent of companies made money. Excluding BHP Billiton, aggregate profits lifted by 37 per cent. Almost 89... Show More

July Review: Asset Prices and Risk Levels Rising

Jonathan Rochford
Jonathan Rochford Narrow Road Capital

Almost all risk assets rose in July, with strong gains in equities and debt. US equities are back to record highs finishing the month up 3.6% with strong gains in Japan (6.4%), Australia (6.3%), Europe (4.4%) and China (1.6%). Investment grade and high yield recorded very strong gains in the... Show More

credit economics australian equities Longform

Howard Marks: Don't ignore the economic realities

Livewire News
Livewire News Livewire

When central banks want to help economies grow, they take actions such as reducing the interest rates they charge on loans to banks or, more recently, buying assets. In theory, both of these will add to the funds in circulation and encourage economic activity. The lower rates are, and the... Show More

quantitative easing economics Howard Marks Oaktree Capital