economics

Global leading indicators are close to signalling a recession. After a 40 day issuance shutdown, the US high yield bond market came roaring back in January. Greece has issued €2.5 billion of 5 year bonds at a 3.60% yield. Show More

After six weeks of heavy outflows from leveraged loan funds, US loans are having a minor pullback with margins and upfront discounts spiking higher. Global debt has hit $184 trillion. US bond managers track themselves against with an index with a AA+ average rating when they have a BBB average... Show More

Private equity has added zero alpha over the S&P 500 over the last decade. Top quartile private equity funds have very low persistence in their performance. October was the worst month for hedge funds in 7 years; a wave of redemptions is likely to lie ahead. A prominent venture capital... Show More

Rising interest rates, higher oil prices and a stronger dollar are a recipe for lower US earnings. Margin pressures are starting to show up in US industrials. 83% of US IPOs in 2018 are unprofitable companies, higher than the level in the tech bubble. US investors are at their lowest... Show More

The debate over whether a value or a growth style produces better long term investment returns continues, with staunch advocates on both sides. Certain high profile investors such as Warren Buffett continue to champion the Benjamin Graham school of value investing while, in contrast, recent BAML fund managers’ surveys have... Show More

Seth Klarman’s 20 lessons from the financial crisis. Jim Grant’s 10 lessons on markets. 15 bullish investment assumptions you should be questioning. It’s time to switch from sexy to boring investments. Howard Marks warns on private debt and the aggressive lending environment. Goldman Sachs’s bull and bear indicator is at... Show More

Global trade is slowing, commodity prices are falling and global liquidity is drying up, pointing to weak GDP growth ahead. S&P 500 earnings growth estimates are well above normal and closing in on the tech bubble peak. The longest bull run ever continues with stretched valuations. Stocks in more indices... Show More

Leveraged loans increasingly have no subordinated debt below them, pushing up the likelihood of principal loss. Private equity is looking very late cycle with the growth in sponsor to sponsor and fund to fund transactions concerning. S&P 500 profit margins are at a record high led by the real estate... Show More

Over the past few weeks, you may have noticed President Trump’s rhetoric has centred around trade and resulted in the escalation of tensions between the US and other economic powers of the world. Many investors are wondering what downside risk they might be exposed to and whether a recession is... Show More

US CLO issuance is at record pace but credit quality is slipping. US high yield bond covenants are at their worst since records began in 2011, even B and CCC rated bond covenants are weak, but in Europe high yield bond buyers are starting to push back on terms. US... Show More

Wells Fargo copped a $1 billion fine for selling dodgy insurance and is keeping bad company in subprime lending. Barclay’s CEO got off with just a fine for trying to unmask a whistleblower. CBA charges fees to customers for over a decade after they died. Deutsche Bank paid $35 billion... Show More

The elephant in the room for Australia’s Federal Parliament has finally been called out. Australia’s rapid population growth is arguably as important an issue as balancing the budget and the environment. Yet almost no one has dared to mention it since Kevin Rudd talked of a “big Australia” in 2009.... Show More

Some investors are asking if global growth is too strong yet State Street sees global investor confidence soaring. There are signs of economic stress in the US, as well as global leading indicators pointing to a negative outlook. Show More

Structurally, Australia’s growth model has been deteriorating for most of the past two decades and is now arguably one of the poorer examples in the developed world. In the years of the last commodity bull cycle, instead of saving in its ‘times of plenty’, Australia funded a large consumption and... Show More

In January, market commentary was almost universally bullish. Ray Dalio, the billionaire US Hedge Fund Manager told the audience at the World Economic Forum in Davos that those holding cash were “going to feel pretty stupid.” One of the few voices urging caution was that of Chris Watling, CEO and... Show More

Higher wages growth in the United States seems to have caused the sell-off and subsequent sharp lift in volatility in global bond and share markets. Annual growth in in US average hourly earnings accelerated to 2.9% y-o-y moving in to territory that has presaged higher inflation in the past and... Show More

In the first podcast for 2018, Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital sits down with Livewire Editor, Patrick Poke. The topic at hand is Australia: the share market, the economy, wages, and of course, house prices. They discuss UBS's report late last year... Show More

The spring carnival is in full swing and it’s time to turn on the lights and examine the political and economic form guide. My tip is "Uncertainty", which seems to have the best track record in politics and economics. So here’s my take on the rest of the runners… Show More

Economic news was strong in October, led by US Q3 GDP coming at an annualised rate of 3.0%. Quarterly earnings and sales for S&P 500 companies are beating estimates by more than usual. One standout was bellwether stock Caterpillar, which after four years of declining revenue has seen sales up... Show More

Here's this month's interesting and informative media on economics, finance, government and society. Show More