Stock buybacks are better at getting cash to executives than shareholders. Hedge fund Element Capital has delivered net annual returns of 21% since 2005. A British hedge fund has returned $300 million to Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund. Brookfield is buying Oaktree Capital – is Howard Marks signalling the top... Show More
The Baltic Dry index is at its lowest levels since 2016 and US inventory levels have spiked. German industrial production has had back to back ugly months. One developer’s Melbourne housing lot settlement default rate is running at 20-25%. US subprime auto arrears are getting ugly but this cycle’s auto... Show More
Global leading indicators are close to signalling a recession. After a 40 day issuance shutdown, the US high yield bond market came roaring back in January. Greece has issued €2.5 billion of 5 year bonds at a 3.60% yield. Show More
After six weeks of heavy outflows from leveraged loan funds, US loans are having a minor pullback with margins and upfront discounts spiking higher. Global debt has hit $184 trillion. US bond managers track themselves against with an index with a AA+ average rating when they have a BBB average... Show More
Private equity has added zero alpha over the S&P 500 over the last decade. Top quartile private equity funds have very low persistence in their performance. October was the worst month for hedge funds in 7 years; a wave of redemptions is likely to lie ahead. A prominent venture capital... Show More
Rising interest rates, higher oil prices and a stronger dollar are a recipe for lower US earnings. Margin pressures are starting to show up in US industrials. 83% of US IPOs in 2018 are unprofitable companies, higher than the level in the tech bubble. US investors are at their lowest... Show More
Seth Klarman’s 20 lessons from the financial crisis. Jim Grant’s 10 lessons on markets. 15 bullish investment assumptions you should be questioning. It’s time to switch from sexy to boring investments. Howard Marks warns on private debt and the aggressive lending environment. Goldman Sachs’s bull and bear indicator is at... Show More
Global trade is slowing, commodity prices are falling and global liquidity is drying up, pointing to weak GDP growth ahead. S&P 500 earnings growth estimates are well above normal and closing in on the tech bubble peak. The longest bull run ever continues with stretched valuations. Stocks in more indices... Show More
Leveraged loans increasingly have no subordinated debt below them, pushing up the likelihood of principal loss. Private equity is looking very late cycle with the growth in sponsor to sponsor and fund to fund transactions concerning. S&P 500 profit margins are at a record high led by the real estate... Show More
US CLO issuance is at record pace but credit quality is slipping. US high yield bond covenants are at their worst since records began in 2011, even B and CCC rated bond covenants are weak, but in Europe high yield bond buyers are starting to push back on terms. US... Show More
Wells Fargo copped a $1 billion fine for selling dodgy insurance and is keeping bad company in subprime lending. Barclay’s CEO got off with just a fine for trying to unmask a whistleblower. CBA charges fees to customers for over a decade after they died. Deutsche Bank paid $35 billion... Show More
Wells Fargo copped a $1 billion fine for selling dodgy insurance and is keeping bad company in subprime lending. Barclay’s CEO got off with just a fine for trying to unmask a whistleblower. CBA charges fees to customers for over a decade after they died. Deutsche Bank paid $35 billion... Show More
Some investors are asking if global growth is too strong yet State Street sees global investor confidence soaring. There are signs of economic stress in the US, as well as global leading indicators pointing to a negative outlook. Show More
Economic news was strong in October, led by US Q3 GDP coming at an annualised rate of 3.0%. Quarterly earnings and sales for S&P 500 companies are beating estimates by more than usual. One standout was bellwether stock Caterpillar, which after four years of declining revenue has seen sales up... Show More
Here's this month's interesting and informative media on economics, finance, government and society. Show More
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) quarterly report is always worth the read. Whilst it is academic in style and length, it consistently raises material that matters. Taken from the September report, the graphic below highlights the big issues for global corporate debt. The rest of this short article explains... Show More
Investment prices keep rising. Valuations are now well beyond long term averages for many asset classes. Pundits are increasingly calling for a big correction. Fears of overvaluation is also found in the corporate bond market. Credit spreads – the extra margin for default risk – are now notably lower than... Show More
How a one-man investigative operation exposes dodgy American companies. A US start-up gives house buyers a down payment in return for 1-3 years of Airbnb bedroom rentals. 15 reasons and 6 benefits from hiding your wealth. If you are starting out or just want a reminder, here’s 36 obvious truths... Show More
Metro Bank is the new kid on a UK retail banking scene plagued with customers fed up by lousy treatment from the largely unchallenged oligopoly of Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds Bank and Royal Bank of Scotland. We take a look into why Metro is great and the industry it operates in. Show More
Another month of small gains in equities and credit, whilst commodities continued to fall back. Equities were up in Japan (2.4%), China (1.5%) and the US (1.2%) with Europe pretty much flat (-0.1%). Australian equities (-3.4%) were the standout loser. High yield and investment grade credit in the US and... Show More
