us interest rates

Higher core inflation will disappoint the Fed and shake optimism about risk assets.

The FOMC expects to cut rates at a faster pace than implied by a policy rule relying on its own economic forecasts.

Whether we will see a soft landing has been the big question facing financial markets.

And the reason interest rate hikes don't work quite the way they used to.

Wages growth has slowed, but was the fastest in trend terms since 2000.

As interest rates rise, investment activity falls, reducing activity across the construction sector, impacting residential property supply.

With the latest PCE inflation data showing deepening disinflation amidst falling lending growth & M2, data doesn't support another rate hike

US core inflation remains persistently high.

Rate cuts will come eventually, but central banks need to break some things first.

In the context of the bond market signalling a US recession in late 2023/early 2024 - where CCI has been forecasting a recession since earlier this year - we have...