US Recession

Government shutdown halts official economic data.

Kellie Wood believes the US has escaped recession for now, but debt dynamics are moving closer to a breaking point.

US GDP could contract in Q1 as consumer spending broadly stalls on higher actual/expected inflation and fears of higher unemployment

The Michigan survey showed consumer unemployment expectations at recession-like levels with a tariff-driven spike in inflation expectations.

But rest assured, even this perma-bear has found good news in a world riddled with problems.

In financial markets, there’s always something to worry about.

Based on recent developments, we believe the likelihood of a recession occurring within the next 9 to 12 months is more likely than not.

US stocks are tumbling and investors are trying to figure out what’s next for the ASX. This indicator may be a critical piece of the puzzle.

The US unemployment rate has edged above most estimates of the NAIRU for the first time since 2021, supporting a Fed rate cut next month.

US unemployment has edged up to almost 4%