ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 lower as rate cut bets ease, gold prices sink
Get up to date on overnight market activity and the big events for the day.
ASX 200 futures are trading 20 points lower, down 0.27% as of 8:30 am AEDT.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

MARKETS
- Markets continue to lean towards risk off amid rising yields, US dollar strength and elevated geopolitical tensions
- S&P 500 finished lower but well off session lows of -1.07%
- Bond yields bounced for a second straight session, the US 10-year hits a 1-month high of 4.1% while the 2-year returns to 4.35%
- Gold sold off amid rising yields and US dollar, hits 1-month low
- Markets are pricing in ~157 bp of Fed rate cuts in 2024, down slightly from ~165 bp before Fed Waller’s speech on Wednesday
- "With the world awash in geopolitical strife, we’re monitoring commodity markets for signs of both inflationary shocks and a weakening global economy … History suggests the US economic expansion may last until mid-2026. We’re watching for developments that could cut it short." – Yardeni
- Sell-side firms continue to lift S&P 500 forecasts (Bloomberg)
- Traders betting on a March interest-rate cut by the Fed may be relying too heavily on history (Bloomberg)
- US dollar has biggest rally in 10 months on Fed cut uncertainty, strong US retail sales data and geopolitical tensions (Bloomberg)
- Fund managers turning to riskier assets amid growing soft landing expectations (FT)
STOCKS
- Tesla cuts Model Y prices in Germany (Reuters)
- Spirit Airlines shares dive 22% after federal judge blocked JetBlue’s proposed US$3.8 billion acquisition (CNBC)
- Rivian shares down 8% after Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock to a hold citing efforts to grow gross margins may take longer than expected (CNBC)
CENTRAL BANKS
- ECB's Lagarde says rate cuts likely in summer, later than market expects (Bloomberg)
- ECB's Simkus says investors are too hopeful when it comes to the prospect of lowering interest rates imminently (Bloomberg)
- Economists unanimously expect BOJ to hold next week, two-thirds expect a rate hike by April (Bloomberg)
GEOPOLITICS
- US launches new strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen after missile strikes Greek vessel (Reuters)
- US stepping up diplomatic efforts to the intensifying hostilities between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah (FT)
- Ukraine President Zelensky makes passionate address at Davos for additional aid (Guardian)
CHINA
- China GDP growth meets government's 2023 target (Bloomberg)
- China property metrics worsen as new home prices fall at fastest pace since early 2015 (Reuters)
- China resumes publishing youth unemployment, showing notable improvement since last publish in June (Bloomberg)
ECONOMY
- Traffic through Suez Canal drops to lowest level since 2021 blockage (Bloomberg)
- US retail sales rise at strongest pace in three months, up 0.4% month-on-month in December and 5.6% year-on-year (Bloomberg)
- UK inflation picks up unexpectedly in December (Bloomberg)
- Japan manufacturer confidence falls for first time in four months amid concerns about weak China demand (Reuters)

China's Population Problem
China reported some rather grim population data on Wednesday, including:
- Population fell for a second consecutive year, down 0.15% or 2.08 million people to 1.41 billion in 2023
- Population fell by 850,000 in 2022, which marked the first decline since 1961 during the Great Famine of the Mao Zedong era
- Total deaths rose 6.6% to 11.1 million, the highest level since the 1974 Cultural Revolution
- New births fell 5.7% to 9.02 million
- Birth rate at record lows of 6.39 births per 1,000 people
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Source: Bloomberg
Iron Ore Headwinds
Iron ore prices are down around 13% from 3 January highs of US$143 a tonne – A rally that likely defied all expectations. The latest data from China sets a worrisome tone for the steelmaking commodity:
- China's new home prices in December fell at the fastest pace since February 2015
- Prices of new homes in 70 medium and large cities fell 0.4% month-on-month after a 0.3% drop in November
- China's real estate investment fell 9.6% year-on-year in 2023, widening from the first 11 months
- The above data triggered a broad-based selloff across Chinese property developers on Wednesday, most of which fell 8-12%
- China's crude steel output was 67.44 million tonnes in December 2023, down 14.9% year-on-year and the lowest print since December 2017
The only bit of encouraging data was China's coking coal imports (a primary steelmaking ingredient) rose 24% month-on-month.
KEY EVENTS
ASX corporate actions occurring today:
- Trading ex-div: Plato Income Maximiser (PL8) – $0.006, Spheria Emerging Companies (SEC) – $0.029
- Dividends paid: Garda Property Group (GDF) – $0.15
- Listing: None
Economic calendar (AEDT):
- 11:30 am: Australia Unemployment Rate
- 12:30 am: US Building Permits
This Morning Wrap was written by Kerry Sun.
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Livewire and Market Index's pre-opening bell news and analysis wrap. Available weekday mornings and written by Kerry Sun.
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