ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 ticks higher despite Nvidia weakness + Lithium prices dip
ASX 200 futures are trading 12 points lower, down 0.17% as of 8:20 am AEST.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

MARKETS
- S&P 500 finished higher in a relatively rangebound session ahead of the US Thanksgiving Day holiday
- Nasdaq closed higher but off best levels due to weakness from heavyweights Nvidia (-2.5%) and Tesla (-2.9%)
- Volatile session for oil prices, down 1.4% from a session low of -5.1% after US crude oil inventories increased more than expected
- Market narrative remains relatively unchanged: Seasonality tailwinds, peak Fed and falling yields, strong earnings from Nvidia (but expectations and positioning elevated into the result), sustained CTA buying
- Hedge funds short sellers suffer an estimated $43bn of losses in sharp rally in recent days (FT)
- RBC joins BofA in expectations for S&P 500 to reach 5,000 in 2024 (Yahoo)
- OPEC delays November 26-30 policy meeting without providing a reason (CNBC)
- Saudis in difficult talks with other members about their production levels (Bloomberg)
- Goldman Sachs says OPEC will use its pricing power to keep prices between US$80-100 a barrel and sees a 35% likelihood of deeper production cuts
STOCKS
- Nvidia's revenue guidance tops expectations as AI chip boom powers on (Bloomberg)
- Sam Altman returns to OpenAI as CEO (Reuters)
- Bezos expected to aggressively sell more shares of Amazon (CNBC)
- John Deere says higher borrowing costs will hit demand, guides to weaker-than-expected 2024 profit outlook (Reuters)
- HP forecasts downbeat first quarter profit amid slow PC market recovery (Reuters)
CENTRAL BANKS
- Fed minutes stress careful approach, does not rule out more hikes (Reuters)
- BOJ reduces JGB purchases at its regular buying operations, yields rise (Reuters)
- ECB's Lagarde say can't declare victory on inflation until 2% goal met (Bloomberg)
- ECB's Schnabel says disinflation process projected to slow (Bloomberg)
- RBA's Bullock says board seeks to cool demand, maintain employment (Bloomberg)
GEOPOLITICS
- Israel agrees to four-day truce with Hamas, 50 hostages to be released (FT)
- Biden's diplomatic breakthrough on Israeli hostage release after weeks of talks brokered by Qatar, US and Egypt (FT)
- Russian parliament approves spending bill to allocate more on defense than social services for first time in decades (AP)
CHINA
- Chinese government advisers to seek 2024 GDP growth target 4.5% to 5.5% (Reuters)
- China state bank purchases said to be accelerating, yuan gains (Reuters)
- Evergrande chairman's mansions seized by company creditor (Bloomberg)
- Sunac China project secures loan from government-backed asset manager (Bloomberg)
ECONOMY
- US short-term inflation expectations climbed to a 7-month high in Nov (Bloomberg)
- US weekly jobless claims fall more than expected (Reuters)
- US durable goods orders fall on weakness in transportation equipment (Reuters)

Nvidia Crushes Earnings, Shares Fall on China Trade Concerns
Nvidia shares slipped around 2% after its forecasts failed to meet sky-high expectations.
Third quarter results summary:
- Revenue up 205% to US$18.1bn – Beat the US$16.1bn expected
- Data centre revenues up 278% to US$14.5bn – Beat the US$12.8bn expected
- Gross margins up 1,883 bps to 75.0% – Beat the 72.5% expected
- EPS up 593% to $4.02 – Beat the $3.37 expected
- Free cash flow up 5,202% to US$7.0bn – Missed the US$7.1bn expected
Nvidia expects fourth quarter revenues to rise 230% year-on-year to US$20.0bn, which was ahead of the US$17.8bn expected by analysts.
Key management quotes and outlook commentary:
- "NVIDIA GPUs, CPUs, networking, AI foundry services and NVIDIA AI Enterprise software are all growth engines in full throttle. The era of generative AI is taking off" – CEO Jensen Huang
- "Our sales to China and other affected destinations, derived from products that are now subject to licensing requirements, have consistently contributed 20-25% of Data Center revenue. We expect that our sales to these destinations will decline significantly in Q4 FY 24..." – CFO Colette Kress
- "Export controls will have a negative effect on our China business, and we do not have good visibility into the magnitude of that impact even over the long term.” – CFO Colette Kress
Brokers remained upbeat and most upgraded their share price targets:
- Bank of America: Reiterated a Buy and raised its target price to $700. “We think the stock could go through some near-term churn, but we expect fundamental strength to help it outperform.”
- Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Buy and revised its target price to $625 ($605 prior). “We increase our 2023-25 revenue and non-GAAP EPS estimates, on average, by 11% and 12% respectively.”
A Buying Spree for US Stocks
Commodity trading advisers (CTAs), which are known for using momentum-driven strategies in futures markets, purchased approximately US$70bn in US equities in the past two weeks.
CTA positioning is currently far from extreme, in fact it would need to add an extra ~US$30bn or so to reach 'extreme' levels. This suggests there is a little more wiggle room for upside before positioning becomes an issue.

Source: Goldman Sachs
Lithium Prices are Spiraling Lower
China's most-traded lithium carbonate futures contract tumbled 7% on Wednesday to a record low of 124,000 yuan a tonne.
The VanEck Rare Earths/Strategic Metals ETF (-1.55%) and Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (-1.3%) were also the worst performing ETFs in the above table.
Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS) shares tumbled 3.8% on Wednesday, not far off 7-month lows.
KEY EVENTS
ASX corporate actions occurring today:
- Trading ex-div: ALS (ALQ) – $0.196, Cobram Estate Olives (CBO) – $0.033
- Dividends paid: None
- Listing: None
Economic calendar (AEDT):
- 9:00 am: Australia Manufacturing and Services PMI
- 8:00 pm: Eurozone Manufacturing and Services PMI
This Morning Wrap was written by Kerry Sun.
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