ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 ticks higher despite Nvidia weakness + Lithium prices dip

Get up to date on overnight market activity and the big events for the day.
The Morning Wrap

Livewire Markets

ASX 200 futures are trading 12 points lower, down 0.17% as of 8:20 am AEST.


Source: Market Index
Source: Market Index

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher in relatively uneventful trade (Source: TradingView)
S&P 500 higher in relatively uneventful trade (Source: TradingView)

MARKETS

  • S&P 500 finished higher in a relatively rangebound session ahead of the US Thanksgiving Day holiday
  • Nasdaq closed higher but off best levels due to weakness from heavyweights Nvidia (-2.5%) and Tesla (-2.9%)
  • Volatile session for oil prices, down 1.4% from a session low of -5.1% after US crude oil inventories increased more than expected
  • Market narrative remains relatively unchanged: Seasonality tailwinds, peak Fed and falling yields, strong earnings from Nvidia (but expectations and positioning elevated into the result), sustained CTA buying
  • Hedge funds short sellers suffer an estimated $43bn of losses in sharp rally in recent days (FT)
  • RBC joins BofA in expectations for S&P 500 to reach 5,000 in 2024 (Yahoo)
  • OPEC delays November 26-30 policy meeting without providing a reason (CNBC)
  • Saudis in difficult talks with other members about their production levels (Bloomberg)
  • Goldman Sachs says OPEC will use its pricing power to keep prices between US$80-100 a barrel and sees a 35% likelihood of deeper production cuts

STOCKS

  • Nvidia's revenue guidance tops expectations as AI chip boom powers on (Bloomberg)
  • Sam Altman returns to OpenAI as CEO (Reuters)
  • Bezos expected to aggressively sell more shares of Amazon (CNBC)
  • John Deere says higher borrowing costs will hit demand, guides to weaker-than-expected 2024 profit outlook (Reuters)
  • HP forecasts downbeat first quarter profit amid slow PC market recovery (Reuters)

CENTRAL BANKS

  • Fed minutes stress careful approach, does not rule out more hikes (Reuters)
  • BOJ reduces JGB purchases at its regular buying operations, yields rise (Reuters)
  • ECB's Lagarde say can't declare victory on inflation until 2% goal met (Bloomberg)
  • ECB's Schnabel says disinflation process projected to slow (Bloomberg)
  • RBA's Bullock says board seeks to cool demand, maintain employment (Bloomberg)

GEOPOLITICS

  • Israel agrees to four-day truce with Hamas, 50 hostages to be released (FT)
  • Biden's diplomatic breakthrough on Israeli hostage release after weeks of talks brokered by Qatar, US and Egypt (FT)
  • Russian parliament approves spending bill to allocate more on defense than social services for first time in decades (AP)

CHINA

  • Chinese government advisers to seek 2024 GDP growth target 4.5% to 5.5% (Reuters)
  • China state bank purchases said to be accelerating, yuan gains (Reuters)
  • Evergrande chairman's mansions seized by company creditor (Bloomberg)
  • Sunac China project secures loan from government-backed asset manager (Bloomberg)

ECONOMY

  • US short-term inflation expectations climbed to a 7-month high in Nov (Bloomberg)
  • US weekly jobless claims fall more than expected (Reuters)
  • US durable goods orders fall on weakness in transportation equipment (Reuters)
  • Japan downgrades economic assessment for first time in 10 months (Reuters)


US-listed sector ETFs (Source: Market Index)
US-listed sector ETFs (Source: Market Index)

Nvidia Crushes Earnings, Shares Fall on China Trade Concerns

Nvidia shares slipped around 2% after its forecasts failed to meet sky-high expectations.

Third quarter results summary:

  • Revenue up 205% to US$18.1bn – Beat the US$16.1bn expected
  • Data centre revenues up 278% to US$14.5bn – Beat the US$12.8bn expected
  • Gross margins up 1,883 bps to 75.0% – Beat the 72.5% expected
  • EPS up 593% to $4.02 – Beat the $3.37 expected
  • Free cash flow up 5,202% to US$7.0bn – Missed the US$7.1bn expected

Nvidia expects fourth quarter revenues to rise 230% year-on-year to US$20.0bn, which was ahead of the US$17.8bn expected by analysts.

Key management quotes and outlook commentary:

  • "NVIDIA GPUs, CPUs, networking, AI foundry services and NVIDIA AI Enterprise software are all growth engines in full throttle. The era of generative AI is taking off" – CEO Jensen Huang
  • "Our sales to China and other affected destinations, derived from products that are now subject to licensing requirements, have consistently contributed 20-25% of Data Center revenue. We expect that our sales to these destinations will decline significantly in Q4 FY 24..." – CFO Colette Kress
  • "Export controls will have a negative effect on our China business, and we do not have good visibility into the magnitude of that impact even over the long term.” – CFO Colette Kress

Brokers remained upbeat and most upgraded their share price targets:

  • Bank of America: Reiterated a Buy and raised its target price to $700. “We think the stock could go through some near-term churn, but we expect fundamental strength to help it outperform.”
  • Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Buy and revised its target price to $625 ($605 prior). “We increase our 2023-25 revenue and non-GAAP EPS estimates, on average, by 11% and 12% respectively.”

A Buying Spree for US Stocks

Commodity trading advisers (CTAs), which are known for using momentum-driven strategies in futures markets, purchased approximately US$70bn in US equities in the past two weeks.

CTA positioning is currently far from extreme, in fact it would need to add an extra ~US$30bn or so to reach 'extreme' levels. This suggests there is a little more wiggle room for upside before positioning becomes an issue.

Source: Goldman Sachs

Source: Goldman Sachs

Lithium Prices are Spiraling Lower

China's most-traded lithium carbonate futures contract tumbled 7% on Wednesday to a record low of 124,000 yuan a tonne.

The VanEck Rare Earths/Strategic Metals ETF (-1.55%) and Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (-1.3%) were also the worst performing ETFs in the above table.

Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS) shares tumbled 3.8% on Wednesday, not far off 7-month lows.


KEY EVENTS

ASX corporate actions occurring today:

  • Trading ex-div: ALS (ALQ) – $0.196, Cobram Estate Olives (CBO) – $0.033
  • Dividends paid: None
  • Listing: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

  • 9:00 am: Australia Manufacturing and Services PMI
  • 8:00 pm: Eurozone Manufacturing and Services PMI

This Morning Wrap was written by Kerry Sun.

........
Livewire gives readers access to information and educational content provided by financial services professionals and companies (“Livewire Contributors”). Livewire does not operate under an Australian financial services licence and relies on the exemption available under section 911A(2)(eb) of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) in respect of any advice given. Any advice on this site is general in nature and does not take into consideration your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before making a decision please consider these and any relevant Product Disclosure Statement. Livewire has commercial relationships with some Livewire Contributors.

1 stock mentioned

1 contributor mentioned

The Morning Wrap
Markets Wrap
Livewire Markets

Livewire and Market Index's pre-opening bell news and analysis wrap. Available weekday mornings and written by Kerry Sun.

I would like to

Only to be used for sending genuine email enquiries to the Contributor. Livewire Markets Pty Ltd reserves its right to take any legal or other appropriate action in relation to misuse of this service.

Personal Information Collection Statement
Your personal information will be passed to the Contributor and/or its authorised service provider to assist the Contributor to contact you about your investment enquiry. They are required not to use your information for any other purpose. Our privacy policy explains how we store personal information and how you may access, correct or complain about the handling of personal information.

Comments

Sign In or Join Free to comment