ASX 200 to tumble, S&P 500 ticks higher + 67 stocks and ETFs trade ex-dividend

ASX 200 futures are trading 89 points lower, down 1.10% as of 8:30 am AEST.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks ticked higher in a relatively quiet overnight session
• Equal Weight S&P 500 (-0.38%) underperformed the official index by 54 bps
• Apple (+2.0%), Amazon (+3.9%) and Tesla (+4.8%) were notable large cap gainers
• Amazon hits US$2tn market cap amid AI enthusiasm (Bloomberg)
• BofA strategists see opportunity in value shares, saying they are trading very low multiples (Reuters)
• Andurand Capital exits long oil positions, pivots to copper and cocoa (Bloomberg)
• Options traders betting on 300 bp of Fed rate cuts by end of Q1 2025 (Bloomberg)
• Oil prices fall after DOE reports surprise build in crude and gasoline stockpiles (CNBC)

STOCKS

• FedEx rallied 15.5% on better-than-expected FY25 guidance, with expectations for US parcel demand to improve through the year, B2B growth and strong operating leverage from eventual recovery in freight demand (Bloomberg)
• Volkswagen to invest up to US$5bn in Rivian as part of JV (Reuters)
• OpenAI's abrupt move to block China to reshape AI scene (Bloomberg)
• Doordash flagged an interest buying UK's Deliveroo last month but ended talks on valuation disagreements (Reuters)

CENTRAL BANKS

• ECB could hold new strategic review of its policy after August (Bloomberg)
• ECB's Rehn says bets for two more rate cuts this year reasonable (Bloomberg)
• RBA Assistant Governor Kent says current policy settings restrictive, working to slow inflation (Bloomberg)

ECONOMY

• US new home sales slump as supply hits more than 16-year high (Reuters)
• German GfK consumer confidence unexpectedly dipped in July (Reuters)
• Australian inflation accelerates, increasing odds of an RBA rate hike (Bloomberg)
  
  

ASX TODAY

• ASX 200 set to extend yesterday's CPI-driven selloff
• Australian 2-year yield surged 26 bps on Wednesday to 7-month high after headline inflation accelerated to 4.0% in May vs. consensus of 3.8%
• Market is currently pricing in over 50% likelihood of a hike in the next two meetings
• Lithium stocks started to rally around 1:30 pm yesterday after a major Chinese producer went down for maintenance – Chinese lithium carbonate futures opened the session 4% lower and finished 4.4% higher to 97,050 yuan a tonne
• Lithium stocks are heavily shorted – Pilbara (20.6%), Liontown (11.6%), Sayona (9.9%) – Let's see if this bounce can persist and possibly squeeze stocks higher
• Baby Bunting reaffirms full-year net profit guidance of $2-4m (BBN)
• Dexus, CPPIB sell joint half stake in 5 Martin Place in Sydney for $310m or 12% discount from latest book value (AFR)
• Medibank Private seeking M&A targets in the area of primary health care (The Aus)
• Paladin Energy issues Langer Heinrich Mine FY25 guidance, targeting nameplate production of 6 million pounds per annum by 2026 (PDN)
• Retail Food Group could be a takeover target as it appears cheap against recently listed Guzman y Gomez (The Aus)

BROKER MOVES

• Bluescope upgraded to Overweight from Neutral; target cut to $23 from $24 (JPMorgan)
• Collins Foods upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target up to $11.50 from $10.95 (UBS)
• Karoon Energy upgraded to Buy from Overweight; target up to $2.28 from $2.21 (Jarden)
• ResMed upgraded to Buy from Outperform; target remains $34.40 (CLSA)

KEY EVENTS

• Thu 27 June – REITs: HealthCo Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW) – $0.002, Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP) – $0.04, Centuria Office REIT (COF) – $0.03, Homeco Daily Needs REIT (HDN) – $0.021, Arena REIT (ARF) – $0.043, Charter Hall Long Wale REIT (CLW) – $0.065, Garda Property Group (GDF) – $0.016, Hotel Property Investments (HPI) – $0.095, Charter Hall (CHC) – $0.23, Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT (CQE) – $0.04, Waypoint REIT (WPR) – $0.041, GDI Property Group (GDI) – $0.025, National Storage (NSR) – $0.055, Goodman Group (GMG) – $0.15, Stockland (SGP) – $0.166, Growthpoint Properties (GOZ) – $0.097, Dexus Convenience Retail REIT (DXC) – $0.053, Dexus Industria REIT (DXI) – $0.041, Dexus (DXS) – $0.213
• Thu 27 June – Everything else: Rural Funds Group (RFF) – $0.029, Virgin Money (VUK) – $0.039, Mirvac Group (MGR) – $0.06, Region Group (RGN) – $0.07
• Fri 28 June: Abacus Group (ABG) – $0.043, Ophir High Conviction Fund (OPH) – $0.06, Danakali (DNK) – $0.009, Abacus Storage King (ASK) – $0.03
• Mon 1 July: Approximately 210 ETFs are trading ex-dividend. See a full list here

• Dividends paid: Tower (TWR) – $0.023, GQG Partners (GQG) – $0.03, Newmont (NEM) – $0.261
• Listing: None
• Earnings: None
• AGMs: None

• 10:30 pm: US Durable Goods (May)
• 10:30 pm: US Q1 GDP Final

This Morning Wrap was written by Kerry Sun.