ASX to rise, Goldman Sachs plans more layoffs, CSL trades ex-dividend

S&P 500 Session Chart

MARKETS

• AAI bullish sentiment jumped 9.1pp to 42.2% in latest reading, above the historical average of 37.5% for the first time in four weeks.
• Stocks finished higher in the US on very thin trading. Low volumes also noted in most of Europe, as traders await the ECB meeting.
• Treasuries mixed with some curve flattening following Thursday's gains. Yields still higher on the week.
• The US Dollar index little changed though held onto solid gains for the week.
• Gold ended fractionally higher while Bitcoin futures finished up 0.1%.
• New York crude oil finished up 0.7%, capping off second-straight weekly gain.

STOCKS

• Goldman Sachs preparing for another round of job cuts aimed at underperforming employees (FT)
• Country Garden's upcoming bond payments raise doubts after it averted default earlier (Reuters)
• Unions launch strike action at Chevron's Australian LNG facilities on Friday after talks failed to produce agreement (Reuters)

ECONOMY

• Fed officials signal September pause but stress data-dependence (Bloomberg, FT)
• Japan GDP revised down amid drags from consumption and capex (Bloomberg)

• Poll shows ECB's hike-or-pause dilemma going down to the wire (Bloomberg, Reuters)

• European rates market is pricing in a 40% chance of a 25bps hike - double the probability seen one week ago.

Deeper Dive

The earnings round trip

For all the talk about US earnings expectations being too high (or remaining too high in many cases), companies have found ways to upgrade their forecasts. Forward S&P 500 earnings forecasts are back at $238 for the next 12 months. And while the number may not matter, the context does.

As this chart from Ryan Detrick at Carson Group shows, we are back at the same levels since the end of June 2022.

You can view this one of two ways. It's either a double top and a second cue that we're near a peak for the S&P 500. Or this really is a sign that corporates have been able to bat away any concerns over a recession and adjust their operations accordingly.

And yes, both can be true and can happen at the same time.

The reason that earnings expectations can go up is because there has been a positive revision to forward revenues. Put more simply, the percentage of companies which are suggesting revenues will go up in the coming 12 months is ticking higher. Bar COVID and the tech bubble of 2000, this is historically a signal for the next bull market (rather than the end of it).

But before you get too excited, just remember that companies, on aggregate, are still trying to contend with rising interest expenses. That is, how much more it's costing for companies to finance their outstanding debt obligations. And as this chart from TS Lombard shows, the surge in expenses (particularly labour costs) has historically been a good portend for an economic recession.