Livewire has acquired Market Index, the country’s leader in free stock market data.
Find out why.

AUDUSD - Hypothetical Range Analysis Generated by Random Walk Process. In perfect markets, logical reasons exist for believing that daily price movements are...

Probability Trader

www.probabilitytrader.com

AUDUSD - Hypothetical Range Analysis Generated by Random Walk Process. In perfect markets, logical reasons exist for believing that daily price movements are random walks or martingales. For the most part serial correlations in daily price fluctuations are typically small. However, even random walks can have a series of runs & can be used to provide insights into the probability (not certainty) of future price levels. In this note we provide a theoretical albeit very simple approach to navigating the forecast noise & provide a probability of price level measurement for the AUDUSD going forward. We create a frequency distribution of 10,000 simulated (artificial) AUDUSD time series going forward 65-days (equivalent to year end 2014). Approximately 50% of the simulated year end levels occur between $0.85 & $0.91. Full data analysis can be viewed at (VIEW LINK)


Probability Trader
Probability Trader
Quantitative Research Analyst
www.probabilitytrader.com

Probabilitytrader is an independent financial research group that provides objective analysis for traders of Global Stock Market Index CFDs, ETFs, Futures, and Options. Our forward looking analysis covers timeframes as short as 1-day to as long as...

Expertise

No areas of expertise

I would like to

Only to be used for sending genuine email enquiries to the Contributor. Livewire Markets Pty Ltd reserves its right to take any legal or other appropriate action in relation to misuse of this service.

Personal Information Collection Statement
Your personal information will be passed to the Contributor and/or its authorised service provider to assist the Contributor to contact you about your investment enquiry. They are required not to use your information for any other purpose. Our privacy policy explains how we store personal information and how you may access, correct or complain about the handling of personal information.