Bank of England Economist Kate Stratford has found the best real-time proxy for the official estimates of quarterly growth in world GDP and trade

James Marlay

Bank of England Economist Kate Stratford has found the best real-time proxy for the official estimates of quarterly growth in world GDP and trade. She found that the export orders measure from the J.P. Morgan-sponsored Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing was the best measure of global activity. Whilst official data doesn't come out until months later, this data comes out only days after the month it measures. The export orders series has had the smallest average error compared to the official data since 2010, and will be useful for analysis on a global scale, especially for central bank economists. (VIEW LINK)


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