Bell Potter

Bell FX: The Minutes from the RBA Board's December meeting yesterday confirmed views that the RBA is comfortably on hold, with a preference for a lower AUD. It seems the Bank remains open to the possibility that rates may need to be lowered further. The first Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook of the Abbott Government was released yesterday and showed a deterioration in the 2013-14 underlying cash deficit forecast to AUD47bn, compared with the August 2013 Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Outlook forecast of AUD30bn. Deficits over the four-year forward estimates period (2013-14 to 2016-17) rose by AUD68bn to a cumulative AUD123bn. Policy changes reflect the other AUD13.7bn, of which AUD8.8bn is accounted for by the pre-announced capital injection to the RBA. Net debt is projected to rise to AUD280bn, or 16% of GDP.


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