The UK has voted to leave the EU with a resultant shock to financial markets, which beforehand had moved significantly towards a “remain” outcome. The exit procedures under Article 50 of the EU treaty could involve up to two difficult years of negotiations before the eventual ratification of the final exit agreement. There are going to be adverse impacts across Europe and, to a much lesser extent, the world at both the economic and political levels. We are likely to downgrade our Eurozone GDP growth forecasts by around 0.5% points per annum over the next one to three years. However, the UK and the Eurozone account for only 6% and 28% respectively of global GDP so the impact on the world economy should be relatively modest. That said, the overall economic impact will ultimately depend on the resilience of consumer, business and financial market sentiment, which is impossible to accurately forecast.