Buy Hold Sell: 3 painful results and 2 standout winners

Reporting season already feels like a lifetime ago, given how fast markets are moving these days, but some results - both good and bad - will have a lasting impact. 

A great set of results and positive share price reaction can reset a company's trajectory, both operationally and in the minds of investors. Suddenly, a middling company with a middling share price can look like a world-beater - though with that comes greater expectations.

On the other hand, market darlings can turn into pumpkins almost in an instant, with momentum and share prices derailed in equal measure. 

In this episode of Buy Hold Sell, Livewire's Anna Dadic speaks with Ben Rundle (Hayborough) and Joe McCarthy (Elston) to unpack some of the most painful results from the season. 

For balance, they also each highlight a standout winner that they believe can kick on over the next 12 months.  

Please note this episode was filmed on 27 August 2025.

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Edited Transcript

Anna Dadic: Hello, and welcome to Livewire's Buy Hold Sell. There's been no shortage of big share price moves off the back of the result season, both good and bad. The question for investors is whether these moves will carry forward or represent an overreaction from the market. Today, we're going to look at some of the biggest moves and attempt to answer those questions. Helping me to do that is Ben Rundle from Hayborough and Joe McCarthy from Elston. Welcome gents. 

3 PAINFUL RESULTS

#1. Guzman y Gomez (ASX: GYG)

Anna Dadic: Let's start with some painful results. Guzman y Gomez served up some bad burritos, with the share price tumbling 18% on the day. Joe, I'll come to you first. Is it a buy, hold or sell?

Joe McCarthy: (HOLD) So it is a newer listing. Investors are clearly a bit jittery and are quite focused on the shorter-term sales outlook. Management seems to think that they have a lot of initiatives in the pipeline that will really drive that going forward. It's probably fair enough to give them credit. Where we are less comfortable is more with the valuation, the growth expectations for that business. We really like the Australian business. It's very profitable, high ROI for the franchisees, which is very important, good runway for growth with the stores, but you have the US business where we're probably a bit more sceptical at this stage. We don't really see the fit in that market. Happy to be proven wrong, but we also acknowledge it is a trial.

Anna Dadic: Yep, absolutely. Ben, GYG is now down 35% year to date, with all the shine since listing evaporating. What do you make of it? Is it a buy, hold or sell?

Ben Rundle: (HOLD) I think GYG is a hold as well. Look, I think they've got a fantastic product, a fantastic team, and it's a hugely scalable business as well, seeing how quickly they've been able to do that in Australia. My issue with it is that the valuation is obviously quite extreme. The growth, while I think it's certainly there, I think it'll keep getting pushed out to the right. So I think that going forward, there's too much of a risk at this valuation that investors continue to be disappointed. So just a hold for me.

#2. PWR Holdings (ASX: PWH) 

Anna Dadic: The next disappointing results reaction was in response to PWR Holdings' numbers. For anyone who doesn't know, PWH creates cooling systems and other parts for race cars. The share price fell 7% on results day. Ben, buy, hold or sell for you?

Ben Rundle: (BUY) Look, this company's been through a big transition period over the last 18 months. There's a huge amount of capacity that they now have for growth. I think that capacity will be able to drive contract wins, particularly in aerospace and defence. And on top of that, we've got the new F1 regulations, which should drive some earnings growth in their motorsports division too. So I think that while it's going through these troubles, it's a good buying opportunity.

Anna Dadic: Joe, PWH is down 20% over the past year. Are you seeing any value at these levels? Buy, hold or sell?

Joe McCarthy: (BUY) Yeah, look, it's a buy as well. Very similar story to Ben, where, like moving to a new factory has been a bit more disruptive than they probably imagined, but it's happened. From there, you've got the extra capacity, and similar story, it’s just a fantastic business. It's a great Australian growth story.

#3. CSL Limited (ASX: CSL) 

Anna Dadic: It wouldn't be a discussion on results season stinkers if we didn't touch on CSL Limited. To be clear, this is one of the best companies Australia has ever created, but its results left plenty to be desired by the market, with the share price down 17% on the day - its worst in history. Joe, buy, hold or sell for you?

Joe McCarthy: (BUY) We see this result as a massive overreaction. There's a lot of talk about competition. Getting the full story, what it really was was an over-leveraged competitor liquidating inventory, and from here, it's the same old growth drivers for CSL. So you've got very strong end market growth, and it continues to get better, actually. They're the lowest cost producer globally, and finally, it's a commercial discipline. And also, what probably drove the miss in the result was actually the commercial discipline, not chasing low-margin contracts. So we think there's a lot of upside from here.

Anna Dadic: Okay, Ben, CSL is down to 30% over the past year. It's had a really tough time of it - a buy, hold or sell for you?

Ben Rundle: (BUY) I think it's a buy. I agree with Joe. I think that it's an overreaction. They did have those issues in the market with that competitor, and they still managed to get pretty good earnings growth. They've got a great position in the market. It's a very high-quality business, and you're getting it at a much cheaper valuation than you have for the last few years. So it's a buyer.

Anna Dadic: My guests seem to think that there's plenty of life left in CSL, particularly at these levels, so that's great.

2 STANDOUT WINNERS

Anna Dadic: Now, let's move on to the standout winners. Enough of the bad results reactions. Let's finish with a bang. I've asked Ben and Joe to each bring in a standout winner for the season, and one that they believe can kick on over the next 12 months. Ben, what's your pick?

Bravura Solutions (ASX: BVS) 

My picks, Bravura. It's a little bit of a polarising stock. I think the market is questioning what the plans of the management team are. I think that the management team is A grade. In fact, they're probably AAA grade, so you're getting the opportunity to back them. The guidance that was put out by the team is very conservative. I think that spooked the market a little bit. I think that there's a huge amount they can do internally to grow the business, and I don't think that the top-line growth will be as soft as what they're potentially saying or what the market thinks. So I think it's a great opportunity to buy the stock.

Challenger (ASX: CGF) 

Anna Dadic: Joe, what's your pick?

Joe McCarthy: So for us, it'd be Challenger. The stars are really aligning for this business this year, and the management team has done a very good job positioning, so it can succeed. You look at the lifetime annuity business that continues to grow. You've also got the ARA changes coming in, which will reduce the risk of the business. You look at the funds management business, there's very good momentum there. It's also worth noting that one of the most experienced private credit managers in Australia, in terms of innovation, you've got the new LiFTS product coming in, and from here we think the growth prospects for this business are improving materially.

Anna Dadic: Okay, that's all we have time for today. I hope you enjoyed this episode of Buy Hold Sell. Thanks to our guests, Ben and Joe, for joining us and sharing their insights. If you enjoyed that video, make sure to give it a like and don't forget to subscribe to our YouTube channel. We release new content every week.