Can We All Stop Being Surprised By Company Earnings “Surprises”

Matthew Wright

Livewire Markets

According to the FT S&P 500 earnings are on track to decline by about 2.6% year-over-year, which is actually about 2% better than what analysts were expecting at the end of June. This is just a continuation of the game where consensus expectations are moved lower and lower until companies can, you guessed it, “surprise” to the upside. This game is one-experienced investors are fully aware of but it is interesting to see how estimates have been moved lower recently. We can see this change by looking at growth expectations breadth. Over two thirds of all US companies have had FY1 sales estimates lowered over the past six months. And more than 60% of all US stocks have had FY1 sales estimates decline over the past one and three months. Similarly, 65% of all US stocks have had its FY1 EPS estimate revised lower over the past six months. And at least half of all stocks have had its FY1 estimate lowered over the past one and three months. To read more (VIEW LINK)


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Matthew Wright
Matthew Wright
Market Analyst
Livewire Markets

Matt has over 10 years’ experience in financial markets and is currently a successful Proprietary Trader with Epoch, trading interest rate and equity derivatives. Matt managed relative value interest rate books for large SFE locals in his early...

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