CBA - More April Sun in Cuba

Probability Trader

www.probabilitytrader.com

CBA - More April Sun in Cuba. In a recent note we observed that since the 45-day holding rule was introduced in 1997 (in an effort to prevent the trading of franking credits), the months of March, April, & October have been kind to the price performance of the Australian Banking Sector. We posit that a good part of this March & April upward bias has something to do with an optimistic outlook with regard to the forthcoming reporting season & the fully franked dividends that the banks (ANZ, NAB, & WBC) provide in May & June. Interestingly, even though it is post earnings release & ex-dividend, CBA has a tendency to go along for the ride & build steam during April. Since 1992, CBA has an average gain of 4.26% for the month of April, with a 20 from 22 win rate. Full data analysis & tables at (VIEW LINK)


Probability Trader
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