Central Banks talking hawkish and walking dovish

Mathan Somasundaram

Deep Data Analytics

Local market followed the US market by bouncing back from the bash day. It was a low turnover day and global guys were the main traders in the market. European and Asian markets were positive. Size mattered as the performance fades with size. Micro caps barely moved today. Miners and Property lead the positive sectors while Staples and Utilities were the worst red sectors. China moved to support fading growth with more lending and that turned the sentiment for the miners. The main play today was the move by WES to take over API. It was cheap and it is a sector with a few players that are not doing well. Perfect for someone like WES to jump in and clean up with their massive balance sheet. Competitors should be worried. Expect some reaction from industry players trying to defend their turf.

The data points for this week are mainly US inflation, China GDP and US reporting season. US reporting season should be solid as peak growth was Q2 but outlook statement should start to point to lower growth outlook and higher cost outlook. Markets trading at 20 year high multiples will struggle to deal with that. US markets need big beats on every reporting cycle when multiples are this high.

US inflation likely to remain hot into 2022. Globally Central Banks are talking hawkish but acting dovish. They have no intention of letting the economic cycle play out and let the real recovery take over. They want to keep control and keep pumping asset bubbles. RBA is a classic example. RBA keeps throwing random non correlated updates in the market to divert from the fact that they do not have a time line for QE tapering or rate cycle except in the “never never”. APRA has flagged the banks to get ready for negative rates. Since negative rates strategy has been so successful in the global ponzi schemes such as Japan and EU, it is completely logical that we follow their success. Sadly, RBA can pull this off as the Federal Government is stuck in new ways to stuff up the pandemic management and vaccine rollout. The problem for asset bubbles around the world is that US Fed is the ultimate savior of the global ponzi scheme and they can’t go negative without creating hyperinflation. USD is the global currency and endless money printing will devalue USD and create even more inflation. China is standing on the side for the Steven Bradbury move to take over. RBA will never raise rates till it blows up and that will be too late. ECB has announced that they will provide new policy setting in 10 days but they can’t do much at all. They have joined the Japan scheme of never ending money printing and it is too hard to leave that strategy and do real reform. Australia is chasing the same model with a proven failure rate. We are going to get the next inflation update from US on Wednesday morning. China GDP update later this week. 

Central Banks continue to prioritize asset bubbles over economy that favors the top 20% over the bottom 60%.

NSW cluster continues to grow and we are seeing more and more evidence that the public are ignoring the government. Most experts are now calling that lockdown in NSW will be extended to the end of July but likely to August. We still don’t have front line workers, aged case and disability groups vaccinated. NSW had been lucky in previous outbreaks. The health care workers saved the government from number of childish mistakes that could have cost so much more lives than it did. NSW government continues to make mistakes and the luck has finally run out. The “mockdown” failure is likely to deliver even longer hard lockdown. It looks inevitable that the lockdown will extend to end of July.

Markets do not rise in a straight line and they do not fall in a straight line. Delta variant is now the main variant on all major regions. UK is planning to open up within weeks while delta is spreading like wild fire. US has the same problem but they are dealing with substantial part of certain states that do not want to get vaccinated for political reasons. Europe, Asia, Africa and South America are still stuck in their own pandemic waves. One of the main inflation boosters is the supply side issues. Pandemic related issues are likely to keep the supply side disrupted well into 2022. It is logical to assume that rising costs will hit margins. We are already seeing signs that growth has peaked. Slowing growth and rising costs with a stagflation economic outlook just does not match up with historic high multiples. It’s going to be a few months of volatility ahead.

Let us run through the main data points released in the last 24 hours…

The value of outstanding loans in China increased 12.30% in June of 2021 over the same month in the previous year. Figures beat market forecasts of 12.1%.

Total social financing in China increased to 36700 CNY HML in June from 19200 CNY HML in May of 2021. Figures beat market forecasts of 28700 CNY HML.

Broad M2 money supply in China rose 8.6% from a year earlier to CNY 231.78 trillion in June of 2021, above 8.3% in May and market expectations of 8.2%.

The unemployment rate in Canada fell to 7.8% in June of 2021 from 8.2% in May, slightly higher than forecasts of 7.7%. Most regions in the country began lifting coronavirus restrictions in June. Most indoor and outdoor dining, recreation and cultural activities, retail shopping, and personal care services had resumed or continued in eight provinces, with varying degrees of capacity restrictions. The total number of unemployed fell by 61,000, the number of people in the labour force increased by 170,000 and the labour force participation rate increased 0.6 percentage points to 65.2%.

The Canadian economy created 231 thousand jobs in June of 2021, above market expectations of a 195 thousand rise and following a cumulative decline of 275,000 over the previous two months. Job gains were entirely in part-time work (+264,000) and concentrated among youth aged 15 to 24 (+164,000; +7.1%), primarily young women, marking the largest single-month increase for this age group since July 2020. Meanwhile, full-time work was little changed (-33 thousand). Employment rose markedly in June in several services-producing industries where a high proportion of jobs involve face-to-face interactions with the public, including accommodation and food services (+101,000), retail trade (+75,000), and "other" services (+24,000). Employment increased in Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia and Nova Scotia. The number of Canadians working from home fell by nearly 400,000 to 4.7 million.

Machinery Orders in Japan increased 7.80% in May of 2021 over the previous month.

Producer Prices in Japan increased 5% in June of 2021 over the same month in the previous year.

Industrial production in the UK rose 0.8 percent month-over-month in May of 2021, following a downwardly revised 1 percent decrease in the previous month and compared with market estimates of a 1.5 percent gain. Increases were seen for mining & quarrying (3.8 percent vs -15.7 percent in April) and electricity, gas steam and air conditioning (5.7 percent vs 1.2 percent). Meanwhile, manufacturing activity went down 0.1 percent. Year-on-year, industrial output advanced 20.6 percent, following a downwardly revised 27.2 percent growth in the prior month.

Comments on US market last close…

US market bounced hard after the belting the day before on weak turnover to finish the day. There was short and gamma squeeze in play for markets at historic leverage growth. Negative Asian markets moved to positive European markets as ECB comments confirm that they are well and truely in Japan type endless printing ponzi economy with frequent boom bust cycle. NASDAQ +0.98%, S&P +1.13%, NASDAQ +1.30% and RUSSELL +2.17%. USD slide lower while yields rose higher....7-8 bps? There’s nothing normal about that. And yet NASDAQ went up? Again...don’t look for logic or correlation. Oil went up again as it seems to do even as pandemic lockdowns increasing globally. Gold and Copper were positive and lead metals higher. It was index level moves in the open and grinding higher after that...as such all sectors were green with Banks and Energy leading while Health Care and Utilities lagging. Gold as a sub sector was on the move higher. US junk bonds are trading at negative real yields. It is clear that global growth peaked in Q2 and such the reporting season starting next week will deliver peak data while outlook statements are going to be key to keep markets at these levels.

Deep Data Analytics offers tailored solutions (i.e. Macro investment signals, risk management, thematic cycles to DIY investment models) to a variety of investors (i.e. fund managers, financial planners, financial advisers, accountants, SMSF and retail investors). If you are interested to find out more, feel free to contact via the website (VIEW LINK)

Full SUNSET STRIP report with end of day market stats are on the attached link.

(VIEW LINK)


........
Deep Data Analytics provides this financial advice as an honest and reasonable opinion held at a point in time about an investment’s risk profile and merit and the information is provided by the Deep Data Analytics in good faith. The views of the adviser(s) do not necessarily reflect the views of the AFS Licensee. Deep Data Analytics has no obligation to update the opinion unless Deep Data Analytics is currently contracted to provide such an updated opinion. Deep Data Analytics does not warrant the accuracy of any information it sources from others. All statements as to future matters are not guaranteed to be accurate and any statements as to past performance do not represent future performance. Assessment of risk can be subjective. Portfolios of equity investments need to be well diversified and the risk appropriate for the investor. Equity investments in listed or unlisted companies yet to achieve a profit or with an equity value less than $50 million should collectively be a small component of a balanced portfolio, with smaller individual investment sizes than otherwise. Investors are responsible for their own investment decisions, unless a contract stipulates otherwise. Deep Data Analytics does not stand behind the capital value or performance of any investment. Subject to any terms implied by law and which cannot be excluded, Deep Data Analytics shall not be liable for any errors, omissions, defects or misrepresentations in the information (including by reasons of negligence, negligent misstatement or otherwise) or for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect) suffered by persons who use or rely on the information. If any law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, Deep Data Analytics limits its liability to the re-supply of the Information, provided that such limitation is permitted by law and is fair and reasonable. Copyright © Deep Data Analytics. All rights reserved. This material is proprietary to Deep Data Analytics and may not be disclosed to third parties. Any unauthorized use, duplication or disclosure of this document is prohibited. The content has been approved for distribution by Deep Data Analytics (ABN 67 159 532 213 AFS Representative No. 1282992) which is a corporate approved representative of BR Securities (ABN 92 168 734 530 and holder of AFSL No. 456663). Deep Data Analytics is the business name of ABN 67 159 532 213.

1 topic

Mathan Somasundaram
Founder & CEO
Deep Data Analytics

Over 30 years’ experience in the finance/tech industry. Mathan has worked extensively in all parts of the finance sector (i.e. County NatWest, Citi, LIM, Southern Cross, Bell Potter, Baillieu Holst and Blue Ocean Equities). Currently Founder and...

I would like to

Only to be used for sending genuine email enquiries to the Contributor. Livewire Markets Pty Ltd reserves its right to take any legal or other appropriate action in relation to misuse of this service.

Personal Information Collection Statement
Your personal information will be passed to the Contributor and/or its authorised service provider to assist the Contributor to contact you about your investment enquiry. They are required not to use your information for any other purpose. Our privacy policy explains how we store personal information and how you may access, correct or complain about the handling of personal information.

Comments

Sign In or Join Free to comment