Given the structural headwinds faced by CCL, we think that analyst forecasts are too high, as is the multiple that the market is placing on those earnings. It is not the low risk growth company that it once was. In shorting CCL, we draw confidence from identifying recurring situations and patterns of behaviour that gave rise to significant falls in stock prices previously. We see CCL as an example of the market underestimating significant change, analyst reputation management, the limitations of company guidance and overlooked signals.