DJIA - After 8 consecutive up months the trend is indeed your friend

Andrew McCauley

At the end of November, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) had recorded 8 consecutive calendar month increases. Since 1914, a monthly winning streak of this length is very rare, having been previously observed on only 7 independent occasions.

The evidence suggests, that upward trends of this length, have a tendency to continue rather than reverse. In fact, the sweet spot in statistical terms, post 8 consecutive monthly gains, is the 3-month forward interval, producing an average return of 7.23%, with an unblemished win rate of 7 from 7.


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