The Fed last week updated their dot plot. See the table below, which guides the Fed Funds rate to be around 1.5% by the end of next year, around 2.5% the year after, then around 3.5% the year after that. But, there’s only one problem with the chart below… it’s from 2014. Yet here we are, two years - and just two hikes later - with the Fed still telling us the next leg of the rates cycle is just beginning. The 2014 dot plot and the new one are both below for comparison.