Having trended down for three years, gold is now 36% below its peak in 2011

Harry Colvin

Longview Economics

Having trended down for three years, gold is now 36% below its peak in 2011. With that, a number of commentators are turning bullish: In particular, gold has become increasingly unloved: ETF holdings have unwound considerably, net long speculative positioning is low and measured sentiment readings are bearish (a key contrarian BUY signal). The outlook for gold, though, will be determined by the trend in real interest rates (see chart below). Most notably, US macro momentum is building and slack in the labour market is rapidly disappearing. As the Fed continues to tighten monetary policy, real yields should therefore rise, undermining the investment case for owning gold. Of note, the gold bull market in the past decade has been built on investment flows (which have accounted for all of the growth in total global gold demand), for detail see our latest Commodity Monthly...

Harry Colvin
Longview Economics

Harry Colvin specialises in global asset allocation, macro themes, and commodities. He has built and developed Longview's commodity research process, timing models, trade recommendations and research products.


No areas of expertise

I would like to

Only to be used for sending genuine email enquiries to the Contributor. Livewire Markets Pty Ltd reserves its right to take any legal or other appropriate action in relation to misuse of this service.

Personal Information Collection Statement
Your personal information will be passed to the Contributor and/or its authorised service provider to assist the Contributor to contact you about your investment enquiry. They are required not to use your information for any other purpose. Our privacy policy explains how we store personal information and how you may access, correct or complain about the handling of personal information.


Sign In or Join Free to comment