Hi-Ho Silver! Twin tailwinds bring booming metal within reach of all-time record

Silver has finally got its skates on and is doing what it has done in previous precious metal cycles by outperforming the gold price.

The metal averaged $US28/oz in CY2024, and moved to a higher average of $US33/oz in the first half of CY2025. It is now $US47.28/oz which is up 68% on the 2024 average.

The same monetary factors that have been driving the gold price to record levels are at play in the silver market, remembering that silver also ranks as an industrial metal with growing applications in solar panels, circuit boards, semi-conductors, EV’s, AI and so on.

Silver is not at record levels just yet, in nominal terms at least. The record price for the metal was back in 1980 when it hit $US50/oz due to the failed attempt by the Hunt oil brothers from Texas to corner the market.

Even so, the current price ($A71.35/oz) is boom time stuff for the bunch of ASX juniors looking to advance their silver and silver/base metals projects. They can generally point to the potential for margins of 50%-plus.

Unlike gold, where there are more than enough gold stocks on the ASX to play the boom in prices for the yellow metal, the field of ASX silver plays is limited.

But there was welcome news on that front in Thursday’s market when James Bay Minerals (ASX: JBY) added a silver leg to its portfolio of gold in Nevada and lithium in Quebec in a deal that was warmly welcomed by the market, with JBY shares taking off to $1, a gain of 23c or 30%.

As the Lone Ranger said to his trusted steed, it’s a case of “Hi-Ho Silver, Away!” for JBY.

Black Bear Minerals (BKB):

Black Bear Minerals (BKB) is going to be the new name for JBY to better reflect its exposure to silver, gold and lithium across North America.

The silver addition is a worthy one too – the wonderfully named Shafter project in Texas, just over the border from Mexico in what is considered to be a northern extension of the Sierra Madre belt with its cluster of world-class silver mines.

JBY likes to refer to the project as Mexican-style silver on American soil.

Shafter has some history to it having been a producer of 35 million ounces at a high-grade of 521g/t (16.7 ounces) between 1883-1942 and 134,5000 ounces in 2012-2013, with a slump in silver prices in that final year to $US18/oz prompting its closure.

It sits about 64km north of the arts and culture town of Marfa, named after a Jules Verne character, and 32km south of Presidio, a very busy administration centre for US Border Patrol operations.

The past production history means Shafter comes with an estimated $150 million in mine and processing infrastructure. More recent work on the property has established a foreign mineral resource estimate of 1.88Mt at 289g/t for 17.57 million ounces.

As Black Bear, the company now sets out over the next 12-24 months both to confirm the scale of the resource to ASX standards and to grow it as well, both near-mine and regionally.

In addition, Black Bear will also be assessing the potential for previously overlooked gold, zinc and lead associated with the high-grade silver to become part of a bigger story at Shafter, while the newsflow from its Independence gold project in Nevada’s Battle Mountain region, in particular, rolls on.

Black Bear is paying $US9.5 million in cash on completion of the acquisition and a deferred consideration of $US8.5 million in two instalments on the deal’s 12-month and 24-month anniversary, which could be satisfied by the issue of shares.

The company is pulling in $30 million from a two tranche placement at 65c a share, a 15.6% discount to the pre-deal trading price of 77c a share, to give its mix of silver, gold and lithium some real momentum.

On an expanded capital base, the company would be valued at $145 million on Thursday’s market price.

Pursuit Minerals (PUR):

In much the same way Black Bear is doing in North America, Melbourne’s Pursuit Minerals (PUR) is adding another leg to its story in South America.

It is adding a fancied high grade-gold exploration project to its portfolio in Argentina, a country now back on the mining industry’s investment destination list thanks to the efforts of President Javier Milei.

A government chainsaw wielding libertarian, Milei’s attack on the Peronist approach of the past which put the brakes on big resource developments in the country is starting to deliver the investment, the jobs, the taxes and royalties which his Latin American neighbours enjoy.

Rio Tinto and BHP alone have committed more than $US10 billion to projects under the new fiscal and regulatory regime Milei is putting in place, albeit with Milei’s vison for a new Argentina facing political opposition.

Pursuit welcomes the emergence of the new Argentina as it works away at getting its Rio Grande Sur lithium project (1.1Mt of contained lithium carbonate) ready for development when the inevitable call comes for its 17,500tpa production potential to help fix the coming supply shortages in the key battery material.

Barrenjoey reckons the inflection point in the lithium market “may be near as demand continues to surprise to the upside with any potential supply disruptions likely leading to disproportional swings in prices.’’ It has forecast the potential for a 21% lithium price improvement in 2026.

Pursuit’s modest sub-$20 million market cap does not reflect the upside potential of Rio Grande Sur. Recent and coming deals on undeveloped lithium brine projects elsewhere in Argentina’s share of the lithium “triangle” says as much.

Rather than wait for the lithium market to cycle upwards, and leveraging off its existing presence in Argentina, Pursuit has decided to add the Sascha Marcelina gold project in the province of Santa Cruz to its portfolio.

It is not a pivot or switch of focus. It’s a diversification and expansion of its footprint in Argentina at a time of record gold prices.

Just what an opportunity the project presents is best summed up by Pursuit’s chairman and geologist of more than 40 years’ experience , Tom Eadie.

“First, the property sits within a world-class gold district, highlighted by the Cerro Negro epithermal deposit (Newmont’s 5Moz high-grade operation),’’ Eadie said.

“Second, despite only limited exploration to date, the project area has already demonstrated strong mineralisation.’

“Importantly, drilling at both shallow levels and at depth has been insufficient to properly test the potential of these vertically zoned epithermal systems, leaving significant upside unassessed.

“Finally, the presence of under-utilised processing facilities in the region provides a clear advantage for future development, helping to fast-track any new mining operation,’’ Eadie said.

“For these reasons, I believe the upcoming drilling results (drilling to start late this year/early 2026) will be particularly compelling and interesting!’’

Pursuit is trading at 10c a share in the wake of the deal, and the stirring of the lithium market. On capital expanded by the share component of the acquisition and a $4.04 million placement, its market cap will be $18.2 million.

PhosCo (PHO):

PhosCo (PHO) has been trading at 7.1c for a market cap of $32 million during the week. The modest market cap does not match the big-time potential of its phosphate project in Tunisia.

That’s because a pesky former partner mounted legal challenges to the project ownership after first trying to give it to itself in an under-handed manner back in 2015.

This week PhosCo advised the ICC had just turfed arbitration initiated by the former partner and is after it for costs.

All that means PhosCo can get busy demonstrating the full potential of world-scale phosphate opportunity it has in Tunisia without investors shying away because of the dramas of the past.

It also means that PhosCo could be considered to be moving in to situation stock territory, given the scale of the phosphate opportunity.

It is something that 16% shareholder Lion Selection Group touched on earlier this when it was clear the dramas of the past were behind PhosCo.

Lion’s managing director Hedley Widdup said at the time that PhosCo was trading cheaply because of the past tenure dramas.

Widdup said PhosCo’s attraction was in the interest that could be stirring from the world’s big fertiliser companies, saying the project was something that possibly – or should be – owned by a big phosphate company.

“The attraction for us is how attractive this could be for partners. We think this is an opportunity for someone who is big in the fertiliser world.”

He said the big fertiliser companies haven’t wanted to wade into a legal battle in a foreign country. “Now that’s over and PhosCo is at the point where it can start to talk to people about partnerships and everything else,” Widdup said.