iPhone 6 leaves big mark on retail sales. You never know what to make of all the hype that goes into the marketing of new Apple products. Fans are certainly evangelistic in their support for the Company and I certainly heard more wild anecdotes about the anticipation and demand around the iPhone 6 than any other device. Retail trade data today showed that, at least this time, demand has lived up to the hype (chart). The ABS notes: In seasonally adjusted terms, Electrical and electronic goods retailing rose 9.2% in September 2014. This figure was influenced by the release of the iPhone 6 during the month. At their recent AGM JB Hi-Fi highlighted that trading in September and October had seen sales growth return - specifically attributing this outcome to the release of the new iPhone. But is this demand ephemeral? If you were to read our recent Buy Side Brief on discretionary retail ((VIEW LINK) you would have to think so. But that hasn't stopped the team at Perpetual marching their way to a 10% holding in the stock.
We had a sell on JBH around $20 with target price of $15 soon after the budget. Recent update and macro headwinds suggest that JBH will most likely go lower in the short term. You can't fight the macro when you are a cyclical.
I think the uptick was mainly short covering after AGM comments. The weakness since then shows that the market is not willing to buy at these multiples given the headwinds. Even on a relative basis, DSH offers better store rollout growth story in similar space at lower multiple.
I would also argue that they are also facing some major structural headwinds as well. The iPhone release was on the 17th of September and you would have expected to stock to rally ahead of that news (which it didn't). A slight uptick following the AGM commentary but it does look weak.