Last week's non-farm payrolls report in the US caused some ripples in the financial markets, but how important are the results? August new jobs came in far weaker than expected, 142,000 compared to consensus projections of 220,000 (and 213,000 jobs added in July). The unemployment rate dropped to 6.1%, but the underlying numbers hardly changed from the previous month. However, there are a couple factors to consider. First off, the annual trend in new jobs continues to increase at a solid 2% pace. Moreover, the August jobs number is historically prone to be being revised upward. (Perhaps this has to do with all the college students returning to school and those jobs being replaced.) Given the rest of the macroeconomic data this past week, I believe it's very likely August numbers are going to end up much higher. (VIEW LINK)


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Jay Soloff

Certainly takes some heat off the hawks' argument. Ultimately, wage growth is going to be the deciding factor on rate changes I think.

James Marlay

Also appears to take some heat out of the discussion around US rates rising. Good for equity investors