Oil has entered a new trading range of between $80 - $100 (over the next 12 - 18 months)

Oil has entered a new trading range of between $80 - $100 (over the next 12 - 18 months). Underpinning that range are bearish fundamental dynamics: Western demand is in structural decline; US shale production is growing rapidly; Saudi is unlikely to cut production to support prices; Libyan supply is recovering and the vast majority (98%) of the world's oil supply is still profitable at a price of $80. Of interest, though, the major risks to that range are to the downside. Particularly important is the potential re-entry of Iran as a major supplier, which could add significant supply in the medium term. At the same time, the potential for a negative Chinese (and EM) growth surprise adds to those risks... for full blog please see our website (VIEW LINK)