Oil has entered a new trading range of between $80 - $100 (over the next 12 - 18 months)

Harry Colvin

Longview Economics

Oil has entered a new trading range of between $80 - $100 (over the next 12 - 18 months). Underpinning that range are bearish fundamental dynamics: Western demand is in structural decline; US shale production is growing rapidly; Saudi is unlikely to cut production to support prices; Libyan supply is recovering and the vast majority (98%) of the world's oil supply is still profitable at a price of $80. Of interest, though, the major risks to that range are to the downside. Particularly important is the potential re-entry of Iran as a major supplier, which could add significant supply in the medium term. At the same time, the potential for a negative Chinese (and EM) growth surprise adds to those risks... for full blog please see our website (VIEW LINK)


Harry Colvin specialises in global asset allocation, macro themes, and commodities. He has built and developed Longview's commodity research process, timing models, trade recommendations and research products.

Expertise

No areas of expertise

I would like to

Only to be used for sending genuine email enquiries to the Contributor. Livewire Markets Pty Ltd reserves its right to take any legal or other appropriate action in relation to misuse of this service.

Personal Information Collection Statement
Your personal information will be passed to the Contributor and/or its authorised service provider to assist the Contributor to contact you about your investment enquiry. They are required not to use your information for any other purpose. Our privacy policy explains how we store personal information and how you may access, correct or complain about the handling of personal information.